
Let?s dig into the statistical resumes and projected rotations as we know them currently, this time. This will be updated moving forward as any new information comes in with player movement or unexpected progress over the summer practices. These rankings and rotational battles will be revisited multiple times as more information comes in leading into the season.
(Last year?s NET, Seed, and Tournament Finish on the top header line for reference. Deep bench players are not listed, only those in the projected rotation or to contend. I also included player ADJ eff rankings. ADJ eff Rankings and qualifying explanation here)
26. St Louis

St Louis | 66 NET | NIT | PER | 1R |
---|---|---|---|---|
Francis Okoro | 6-9, 235 | 10.8ppg, 8.1rpg | 25.4 | Sr |
Javon Pickett | 6-5, 220 | 11.1ppg, 3.1rpg (@Mizz) | 12.2 | Gr |
Javonte Perkins | 6-6, 215 | 17.1ppg 3.9rpg (2021) | 21.4 | Gr |
Gibson Jimerson | 6-5, 200 | 16.3ppg, 2.3rpg | 16.8 | So |
Yuri Collins | 6-0, 185 | 11.1ppg, 7.9apg | 17.3 | Jr |
Fred Thatch Jr. | 6-3, 215 | 9.3ppg, 5.5rpg | 17.6 | Sr |
Terrence Hargrove Jr | 6-4, 215 | 6.7ppg, 4.2rpg | 11.5 | Jr |
Jake Forrester | 6-8, 220 | 5.5ppg, 3.9rpg (@Temple) | 17 | |
Sincere Parker | 6-3, 180 | 21.9ppg, 6.2rpg | Jr |
Peak Efficiency Adjusted by SOS | Returning Players in the Top 300 |
---|---|
17 | Francis Okoro |
96 | Javonte Perkins |
221 | Fred Thatch Jr. |
231 | Yuri Collins |
251 | Gibson Jimerson |
This is some really nice depth. Adding Javon Picket from Missouri and getting back a 17ppg guy in Perkins to add to an already solid 66 NET team is big time. They were nearly top 50 NET two years ago with Perkins. I don’t trust Travis Ford, unfortunately, but I do like the roster to make a big step up. There is enough continuity and experience here with so many other teams in flux with all the portal movement and working players in I expect St. Louis to get off to a good start and make the jump to this range.
27. Texas A&M

Texas A&M | 36 NET | NIT | CG | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Julius Marble II | 6-8, 225 | 6.4ppg, 3.3rpg (@Mich St) | 18.2 | Jr |
Henry Coleman | 6-7, 229 | 11.0ppg, 6.2rpg | 22.4 | Jr |
Tyrece Radford | 6-2, 200 | 10.9ppg, 6.2rpg | 18.8 | Sr |
Andre Gordon | 6-2, 188 | 5.4ppg, 2.2rpg | 13.4 | Sr |
Wade Taylor | 6-0, 186 | 8.2ppg, 2.2apg | 14.6 | So |
Andersson Garcia | 6-7, 205 | 4.3ppg, 4.2rpg (@Miss St) | 20.5 | Jr |
Denis Dexter | 6-5, 210 | 8.4ppg, 5.0rpg(@WSU) | 12.3 | Sr |
Manny Obaseki | 6-4, 189 | 3.6ppg, 1.8rpg | 9.8 | So |
Hayden Hefner | 6-6, 182 | 3.5ppg, 1.0rpg | 11.7 | Jr |
Javonte Brown | 7-0, 250 | 1.5ppg, 1.6rpg | 13.3 | So |
Erik Pratt | 6-5, 180 | 18.1ppg 4.1rpg (JUCO) | Jr | |
Solomon Washington | 6-6, 190 | 4* | Fr |
Peak Efficiency Adjusted by SOS | Returning Players in the Top 300 |
---|---|
29 | Tyrece Radford |
74 | Henry Coleman |
Jackson is a massive loss because he was superb, yet they only played him 26 minutes a game. It’s not like they are replacing a guy playing 35 minutes like most stars making his impact are. If they played the good players like him and Coleman that are really impacting the game positively more minutes, and you probably make the NCAA’s instead of the NIT last year.
That’s not really their style though. This team is extremely deep again, that’s why I posted 11 deep because they went about that deep last year. I don’t know why players with options really want to come here and play these suppressed minutes, but they do. They added some nice players and have existing continuity.
As a general philosophy, I’d much rather have a guy like Quenton Jackson last year playing 10 more minutes than the 10th or 11th man even if he’s not as fresh. This is college with a 30 second shot clock and 40 minute game with really young guys. This is not the NBA with 30 something year olds playing 82 games. I’ve never really seen the value in suppressing star’s minutes and having rotations this deep. Those minutes essentially go to 10th men.
Radford had a down year, but I do think he can step it up and play more like he did at Virginia Tech under Buzz and help make up some of the Jackson loss. There is still a lot of returning continuity and good players, from a team playing well late in the year too. I just question the style lending itself to a high ceiling with exceptions like Rick Pitino type talent and depth at Kentucky or Louisville.
28. Memphis

Memphis | 31 NET | 9 seed | 2R | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Malcolm Dandridge | 6-9, 232 | 4.4ppg, 2.6rpg | 15.8 | Sr |
Deandre Williams | 6-9, 205 | 11.1ppg, 5.8rpg | 21.7 | Gr |
Damaria Franklin | 6-4, 210 | 17.8ppg, 6.9rpg (@UIC) | 20.8 | Sr |
Keonte Kennedy | 6-5 180 | 14.1ppg, 6.1rpg(@UTEP) | 18.8 | Sr |
Kendric Davis | 5-11, 190 | 19.4ppg, 4.4apg(@SMU) | 23.8 | Sr |
Elijah McCadden | 6-4, 210 | 11.7ppg, 4.6rpg(@GSU) | 14.7 | Gr |
Kaodirichi Akobundu-Ehiogu | 6-9, 200 | 4.7ppg, 4.8rpg(@UTA) | 18.5 | So |
Jayden Hardaway | 6-5, 195 | 2.9ppg, 1.0rpg | 13.1 | Sr |
Chandler Lawson | 6-8, 205 | 1.6ppg, 2.2rpg | 14.2 | Sr |
Johnaton Lawson | 6-6, 185 | redshirt | Fr |
Peak Efficiency Adjusted by SOS | Returning Players in the Top 300 |
---|---|
11 | Kendric Davis |
41 | Deandre Williams |
263 | Keonte Kennedy |
(Edit: Reports are Akot didn?t show and Alex Lomax came back for year 5. In Damaria Franklin out Akot which is equivalent or better for Memphis IMO. )
This team really only had Kendric Davis committed in late May. Getting Deandre Williams to pull his name from the draft was crucial and I believe, helped eventually land Akot and Kennedy. Williams was never going to get drafted by the NBA, and there isn’t much of a chance at 26 years old with his build that he even will have much interest invested in him. He should make more money at Memphis with their FedEx money as desperate as they were for players than he could anywhere else in pro basketball around the world. This man does have to be somewhat sick of sitting in a classroom at his age, so I couldn’t have blamed him if he left.
It did however seem to be a harder process to get players than in recent years when the NCAA tournament isn’t assured with potential probation hanging over them. They probably saved disaster by landing Kendric Davis somehow. That was a huge get and I think Davis has the potential to be the best non-post player in the entire nation. He’s proven he can pretty much carry a team to the top 50.
Penny Hardaway certainly isn’t known as a micromanager so Davis will have all the freedom he wants to do whatever he wants. In this case, I don’t think it’s even that terrible because they should want the ball in Davis’s hands with him carrying the team. He’s almost all they have, but with Williams back, that’s at least a partnership and has the makings of a top 35 type team even with little else around them which is the case. The late additions of Akot and Kennedy cement that in my opinion.
I don’t think Akot or Kennedy are either amazing but they can be solid role players around Davis and Williams, Akot has proven that on a good team. He just doesn’t do a lot of stuff other than being a big wing that can get a hand up and make a few three’s. McCadden doesn’t seem like a Memphis level guy, but he’s needed at this point just as a warm body, I do however like the Akobundu-Ehiogu addition. He’s young and blocks shots at one of the highest rates in the nation. It took a while but they now have an experienced team with decent depth. Davis gives them a chance at the NCAA’s if the NCAA’s allow that.
29. Iowa

Iowa | 14 NET | 5 seed | 1R | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Filip Rebraca | 6-9, 222 | 5.8ppg, 5.6rpg | 15 | Gr |
Kris Murray | 6-8, 215 | 9.7ppg, 4.3rpg | 26.1 | Jr |
Patrick McCaffery | 6-9, 200 | 10.5ppg, 3.6rpg | 18 | Jr |
Tony Perkins | 6-4, 210 | 7.4ppg, 2.4rpg | 17.6 | Jr |
Ahron Ulis | 6-3, 190 | 3.1ppg,2.1apg | 11.5 | Jr |
Payton Sandfort | 6-7, 215 | 5.0ppg, 1.9rpg | 18.8 | So |
Connor McCaffery | 6-5, 205 | 2.5ppg, 1.9apg | 10.5 | Gr |
Josh Dix | 6-4, 180 | 4* | Fr | |
Dasonte Bowen | 6-3, 180 | 4* | Fr |
Peak Efficiency Adjusted by SOS | Returning Players in the Top 300 |
---|---|
180 | Patrick McCaffery |
Originally I was going to say this…….”Iowa, sorry, you don’t just lose a player who had one of the greatest statistically efficient seasons ever and just replace him with his twin brother and the coach’s son and call it the same. He may look the same, but he wasn’t statistically anymore the same as Robin Lopez is the same as Brook. ” After digging in I am thinking about it more, I believe this is still a good team snarkiness aside. Continuity is still there and there are also guys with the talent to explore bigger roles, like Sandfort and the other Murray. Kris Murray is still pretty good even if he’s not his brother, his Peak Adjusted Efficiency if he qualified would have put him 16th and I do think he will have at least as high a quality efficient season as he did last year in extended minutes even if he doesn’t have a season like his brothers. No one can be expected to have that level of the season. There is enough experience returning they are still a team to respect and I give them and their system the benefit of the doubt even with the major loss of Keegan Murray.
30. Missouri

Missouri | 151 NET | None | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
Mohamed Diarra | 6-10,215 | 17.8ppg, 12.6rpg (JUCO) | Jr | |
Kobe Brown | 6-7, 240 | 12.5ppg, 7.6rpg | 21.2 | Sr |
DeAndre Gholston | 6-5, 215 | 16.8ppg, 5.2rpg (2021@Mil) | 19.2 | Sr |
Isiaih Mosley | 6-5, 201 | 20.4ppg, 6.4rpg | 27.7 | Sr |
Sean East | 6-3, 170 | 20.9ppg 5.7apg (JUCO) | Jr | |
Nick Honor | 5-10, 205 | 7.7ppg, 2.4apg(@Clemson) | 12.9 | Sr |
Noah Carter | 6-6, 229 | 15.0ppg, 4.1rpg(@NIU) | 23.7 | Jr |
D?Moi Hodge | 6-4, 180 | 15.4ppg, 3.1rpg (@Clev St) | 23.8 | Gr |
Tre Gomillion | 6-4, 215 | 10.5ppg, 4.7rpg (@Clev St) | 17.1 | Gr |
Ronnie DeGray III | 6-7, 220 | 8.3ppg, 4.6rpg | 16.8 | Jr |
Aidan Shaw | 6-8, 190 | 4* | Fr |
Peak Efficiency Adjusted by SOS | Returning Players in the Top 300 |
---|---|
32 | Isiaih Mosley |
50 | Kobe Brown |
58 | Noah Carter |
178 | Ronnie DeGray III |
I loved what they had done even before they added Mosley. Obviously, this is a completely different team with a new coach. I think people could really be sleeping on the work Dennis Gates has put in on one spring. It?s great stuff including bringing over 2 core Cleveland State players to help him set the tone and vouch for him. Sean East even has solid D1 experience as well at Bradley and UMass and I choose to ignore how bad Gholston played last year. That was a weird year IMO with a highly inefficient, overhyped coach?s son altering his role and spots on the court. I expect him to bounce back closer to his 2021 season. This is a team that if they look good early will move up quickly in my rankings. Right now just the unknown of how they all work together seems to be the only hold-up and I doubt I?m sleeping on them more than most will. They could be a top 15 talented team, but who knows how it comes together.
31. UAB

UAB | 49 NET | 12 seed | 1R | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Trey Jemison | 7-0, 260 | 7.0ppg, 7.4rpg | 18.9 | Sr |
KJ Buffin | 6-7, 230 | 10.0ppg, 6.8rpg | 19.3 | Sr |
Ledarrius Brewer | 6-5, 195 | 14.6ppg, 5.3rpg(@ETSU) | 17.1 | Gr |
Jordan Walker | 6-3, 185 | 20.3ppg, 4.9apg | 22.8 | Sr |
Eric Gaines | 6-2, 155 | 9.0ppg, 2.9apg(@LSU) | 14.4 | So |
Tavin Lovan | 6-4, 210 | 8.2ppg, 3.5rpg | 18.3 | Sr |
Ty Brewer | 6-9, 210 | 10.7ppg, 6.7rpg (@ETSU) | 16.3 | Gr |
Javian Davis | 6-9, 242 | 3.5ppg, 2.3rpg (@Miss St) | 12.1 | Sr |
Tyler Bertram | 6-3, 185 | 9.0ppg, 1.8rpg(@Bingington) | 11.4 | Jr |
Peak Efficiency Adjusted by SOS | Returning Players in the Top 300 |
---|---|
75 | Jordan Walker |
198 | Ladarius Brewer |
236 | KJ Buffen |
253 | Trey Jemison |
283 | Tavin Lovan |
297 | Eric Gaines |
Returning 4 key players and a 20ppg scorer is pretty big to go with what they added. Adding a couple of brothers / teammates should help with the chemistry as well. Walker and Gaines are a big time backcourt in the making. This should be the year they take a big step, it’s just too good deep team top to bottom with lots of versatility that will have lots of winnable games.
Andy Kennedy has proven he is one of the portal whisperers, and UAB is lucky to have this alum probably for years to come. With the level he’s already recruiting at in the portal I’m really excited to see the kind of transfers Kennedy can pull off when they upgrade conferences to the American. They already are on the cusp of the top 25 as it is.
32. Wyoming

Wyoming | 58 NET | 12 seed | 1R | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Graham Ike | 6-9, 245 | 19.5ppg, 9.6rpg | 25.1 | Jr |
Hunter Maldonado | 6-7, 200 | 18.5ppg, 5.7rpg | 22.9 | Gr |
Max Agbonkpolo | 6-8, 190 | 7.7ppg, 3.5rpg(@USC) | 13.9 | Sr |
Xavier DuSell | 6-4, 190 | 7.5ppg | 8 | Jr |
Ethan Anderson | 6-1, 210 | 4.4ppg, 2.2apg(@USC) | 9.4 | Sr |
Jeremiah Oden | 6-8, 180 | 7.8ppg, 4.5rpg | 15 | Jr |
Brendan Wenzel | 6-7, 212 | 5.2ppg 2.9rpg | 9.8 | Jr |
Jake Kyman | 6-6, 220 | 2.4ppg, 1.0rpg(@UCLA) | 12.7 | Sr |
Noah Reynolds | 6-3, 195 | 2.9ppg, 0.7apg | 7.5 | So |
Hunter Thompson | 6-10, 235 | 2.7ppg, 1.5rpg | 8 | Gr |
Peak Efficiency Adjusted by SOS | Returning Players in the Top 300 |
---|---|
25 | Graham Ike |
62 | Hunter Maldonado |
I’m not as high on their transfer haul as most people, they are fine but not really difference makers in my opinion. The difference maker here is Maldonado pulling his name out of the draft last minute. Getting him back with solid upgraded role players and the continuity they had from the returners here makes this a much more interesting team. With Roddy staying in the draft the MWC championship now seems to be a 2 team race with San Diego State and Ike and Maldonado are a great 1-2 punch to have.
33. LSU

LSU | 20 NET | 6seed | 1R | |
---|---|---|---|---|
KJ Williams | 6-10, 245 | 18.0ppg, 8.4rpg (@Murray St) | 30.3 | Gr |
Kendal Coleman | 6-8,230 | 15.4ppg, 10.1rpg (@Northwestern St | 24.4 | So |
Trae Hannibal | 6-2, 210 | 9.2ppg, 5.1rpg(@ Murray St) | 21.7 | Jr |
Cam Hayes | 6-3,175 | 7.8ppg, 3.1apg (@NC St 2021) | 14.1 | So |
Justice Hill | 6-0, 170 | 13.4ppg, 5.1apg(@Murray St) | 19.2 | Jr |
Derek Fountain | 6-9, 210 | 5.4ppg, 3.0rpg(2021@ Miss St) | 12.4 | Jr |
Adam Miller | 6-3, 180 | 8.3ppg, 2.8rpg (2021@Illinois) | 9.5 | So |
Mwani Wilkinson | 6-5, 215 | 4.0ppg, 3.0rpg | 9.9 | So |
Jalen Reed | 6-9, 230 | 4* | Fr | |
Shawn Phillips | 6-10, 250 | 4* | Fr | |
Tyrell Ward | 6-7, 180 | 4* | Fr |
Peak Efficiency Adjusted by SOS | Returning Players in the Top 300 |
---|---|
49 | KJ Williams |
165 | Kendal Coleman |
248 | Trae Hannibal |
I really like what McMahon has done since his arrival, even losing most of his team. They probably won’t be able to play in the NCAA, unfortunately for things he didn’t do. I guess no one told the new players this. Either way, I really like what he did around the new guys retaining Miller and Wilkerson even if I wasn’t as high on them as others. Off the bench, they are completely solid.
Either way, when you can essentially reconstitute 3/4’s of the impactful core of a top 30 NET team at Murray State that went to the 2nd round, I think that will go a long way in the rebuild. Those three carry-over players can help set the tone and culture for what McMahon wants and drive some continuity and get the rest of the players in place. This is something the other portal-heavy type teams probably won’t have early.
I doubt anyone else will rank them anywhere nearly as high but I guess it comes down to how real you think a top 30 NET/2nd round Murray State was. I think they were legit and this is almost like transporting their team to the P6 and adding Colman and some LSU depth I think this could even be a little disrespectful. We’ll see how well it works in the SEC.
34. Virginia

Virginia | 68 NET | NIT | 3R | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Kadin Shedrick | 6-11, 216 | 6.9ppg, 5.1rpg | 23.7 | Jr |
Jayden Gardner | 6-6, 235 | 15.3ppg, 6.4rpg | 22 | Gr |
Armaan Franklin | 6-4, 194 | 11.1ppg, 2.8rpg | 13.9 | Sr |
Reece Beekman | 6-3, 174 | 8.2pg 5.2apg | 18.2 | Jr |
Kihei Clark | 5-9, 160 | 10.0ppg, 4.4apg | 13 | Gr |
Ben Vander Plas | 6-8, 223 | 14.3ppg, 6.8rpg(@Ohio) | 20.6 | Gr |
Francisco Caffaro | 7-0, 250 | 4.3ppg, 4.6rpg | 13 | Sr |
Taine Murray | 6-5, 205 | 2.0ppg, 0.9rpg | 9.5 | So |
Isaac Traudt | 6-8, 205 | 4* | Fr | |
Isaac McKneely | 6-3, 180 | 4* | Fr | |
Leon Bond | 6-6, 190 | 4* | Fr |
Peak Efficiency Adjusted by SOS | Returning Players in the Top 300 |
---|---|
20 | Jayden Gardner |
192 | Reece Beekman |
300 | Ben Vander Plas |
Yeah, these are mostly the same guys that went nowhere last year. Yeah, they can’t throw it in the ocean from outside. That said I’m still a sucker for regular-season Tony Bennett. Yes, I say regular season even with a national championship in his pocket. I think they make the move back towards the top 30. K. Clark is a game manager low upside solid floor guy, but at this point, he’s got to be like an extension of Bennett.
The biggest add this spring is the desperately needed floor spacer Vander Plas. He’s not even a great 3 point shooter at 33% but with the futility and volume UVA shoots them at, that’s even an improvement. Especially coming from a stretch big and hopefully drawing out an opposing big to give Beekman and Gardner more of a path to the basket. Having a year in the system for starters like Gardner and Franklin should help. In this system I think matters more than most.
I just need to see how they deploy Vander Plas. Does he take more of Gardner’s minutes, or Shedrick, that will be the most interesting part. I don’t think Gardner is capable of playing SF but that’s the other option Bennett could try. Vander Plas being on the court to provide some shooting and space is highly needed regardless of how they go about it.
The question that most likely needs to be answered will be can how he and Gardner could hold up together in the post. Gardner still needs to be on the court a lot for this team to have a chance IMO, and he could some space Vander Plas can help with to maximize his game which I believe has another level if he could get any spacing help. Gardner previously held up pretty well playing a lot of center in the AAC, so I could see them working defensively together in the post with another year of Gardner in this system.
35. Texas Tech

Texas Tech | 8 NET | 3 seed | S16 | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Fardaws Aimaq | 6-11, 245 | 18.9ppg, 13.6 (@UVSU) | 25 | Sr |
Kevin Obanor | 6-8, 225 | 10.0ppg, 5.5rpg | 16.8 | Gr |
Kerwin Walton | 6-5, 205 | 8.2ppg, 1.7rpg(@UNC 2021) | 12.9 | Fr-r |
D’Maurian Williams | 6-5, 195 | 14.5ppg, 4.6rpg(@Gardner Webb) | 17.5 | So |
De’Vion Harmon | 6-2, 198 | 10.8ppg, 2.1apg(@Oregon) | 13.7 | Sr |
Jaylon Tyson | 6-7, 210 | 1.8ppg, 1.1rpg (@Texas) | 12.9 | Fr-r |
Rickie Isaacs | 6-2, 190 | 4* | Fr | |
Clarence Nadolny | 6-3, 190 | 3.5ppg, 1.2rpg | 10.4 | |
Daniel Batcho | 6-11, 245 | 2.2ppg, 2.7rpg | 16.2 | So |
Lamar Washington | 6-4, 210 | 4* | Fr |
Peak Efficiency Adjusted by SOS | Returning Players in the Top 300 |
---|---|
63 | Kevin Obanor |
77 | Fardaws Aimaq |
It’s a completely new team and I think the biggest task will be getting so many new key parts playing together early. I do however like the roster makeup and how Adams has rebuilt for the most part. Fardaws was one of the best transfers in the nation that should be able to anchor a solid defense around. Harmon is a pretty experienced PG to help bring it together and Williams has some size and shooting ability to space it out. There is a little question about how good a facilitator Harmon can actually be though.
It’s all solid, the hope is just Tyson can live up to the hype. He didn’t get much chance at Texas to discredit the rankings in a small sample, but I do think you have to worry some about why he wasn’t playing more. Texas was loaded sure, but guys with his hype typically find their way into the rotation especially early and he did not.
I thought their season kind of hinged on if Tyson was overrated or not, and can play the role they need him to. The other 4 projected starters seem experienced and solid enough to keep them competitive. Adding Kerwin Walton from UNC changed that calculus. I think that solidly put them in the top 40 if they can get him to play any level of defense at all.
Fortunately, that is what this team was known for last year. We know Walton is a solid shooter who could average 8ppg on a pretty good UNC team. He was all but forgotten last year but he’s the kind of proven wing Tech needs. The post players between Fardaws and Obanor should be among the best in the nation, it’s just what’s around them coming together now.
36. Illinois

Illinois | 15 NET | 4 seed | 2R | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Coleman Hawkins | 6-10, 200 | 5.9ppg, 4.3rpg | 16.1 | Jr |
Matthew Mayer | 6-9, 225 | 9.8ppg, 5.0rpg | 19 | Gr |
RJ Melendez | 6-7, 205 | 3.8ppg, 1.7rpg | 24.2 | So |
Terrance Shannon | 6-6, 210 | 12.9ppg, 4.0rpg(2021@ Texas Tech) | 21.1 | Sr |
Skyy Clark | 6-2, 200 | 4* | Fr | |
Jayden Epps | 6-1, 175 | 4* | Fr | |
Dain Dainja | 6-9, 270 | 2.0ppg, 1.rpg(@Baylor) | 23.4 | So |
Ty Rodgers | 6-6, 210 | 4* | Fr | |
Luke Goode | 6-7, 200 | 2.0ppg, 1.8rpg | 9.8 | So |
Austin Hutcherson | 6-6, 180 | 2.8ppg, 2.0rpg | 5 | Gr |
Peak Efficiency Adjusted by SOS | Returning Players in the Top 300 |
---|---|
106 | Matthew Mayer |
109 | Terrance Shannon |
This team seemed to be going nowhere until they landed Mayer, but with him, they now have a good chance to crack the top 40. Underwood is a good coach and Shannon has demonstrated he could play a bigger role in 2021 and still be efficient. Last year was a little down for Shannon dealing with an injury but it wasn’t bad enough to miss significant time so well assume he’s more healthy and the version he was 2 seasons ago. When you have peaked out at a higher level I’ll believe that is at least the ceiling until there are multiple down years or a good reason not to, like a major injury.
There are still some questions but Mayer answered a lot of the bigger ones. The only question now is how he will hold up in extended minutes and even more usage. Illinois will certainly need him to be one of the two main offensive cogs. There was a respectable baseline still from Mayer last season, but we did see a noticeable drop in the efficiency already as the minutes and role got bigger. He will need to maintain at least the efficiency he had last year in an even higher usage role this year for this team to get into the top 40, but I do think that is achievable.
At this moment they will still have to depend on some freshman point guards to get Shannon and Mayer the ball which remains some concern. After I ran my model it liked them overall more than my eye test did with both Shannon and Mayer barely missing the top 100. I think any further upside lies with Melendez and how good he can be in a bigger role. He’s not a great fit as a non shooter, but having a bigger stretch 4 like Mayer beside him allows for another nonshooter to be playable in the line up. He should be able to play in the dunker role around the basket on offense with Mayer stretching the floor. If Melendez can maintain 3/4’s of his efficiency last year in starter minutes they probably have a chance to be a top 30 team.
37. Ohio State

Ohio State | 23 NET | 7 seed | 2R | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Zed Key | 6-8, 245 | 7.8ppg, 5.6rpg | 20.4 | Jr |
Justice Sueing | 6-7, 215 | 10.7ppg 5.5rpg(2021) | 18.2 | Gr |
Tanner Holden | 6-6, 185 | 20.1ppg, 7.1rpg(@Wright St) | 24.8 | Sr |
Sean McNeil | 6-3, 210 | 12.2ppg, 2.5rpg(@WVU) | 13.7 | Sr |
Isaac Likekele | 6-5, 215 | 7.1ppg, 3.5apg(@OK St) | 12.3 | Sr |
Eugene Brown | 6-6 195 | 3.5ppg, 2.4rpg | 9.1 | Jr |
Brice Sensabaugh | 6-6. 240 | 4* | Fr | |
Seth Towns | 6-8, 230 | 3.8ppg, 2.2rpg(2021) | 15.5 | Jr |
Bruce Thornton | 6-1, 190 | 4* | Fr | |
Felix Okpara | 6-10, 210 | 4* | Fr |
Peak Efficiency Adjusted by SOS | Returning Players in the Top 300 |
---|---|
131 | Justice Sueing |
156 | Tanner Holden |
I’m not the biggest fan of Holtmann, but this is a pretty nicely rebuilt roster. It’s a little short in the post but the pieces are solid. I would rather have a 6-8 guy that can play than a 7 footer that can’t and both have played well. Sueing only played 2 games last year, but he’s been very good previously. Towns didn’t play last year as well but he was solid in limited minutes and previously at Harvard. Getting these two players back with experience will be helpful if they can remain healthy.
I really like the transfer haul too. Wright State wasn’t that good this year but I don’t think you can blame Holden as productive as he was individually. They were however top 75 NET the year prior with him leading the way. He’s a very productive player who can get to the line at an elite level, and I believe that’s still going to translate.
Holden’s three point shooting was average on dare you to shoot low volume. Still, he made enough that the hope is the volume can be expanded and the percentage hold up enough to be passable. There at least seems to be a path to improve and keep up with the step up in competition. McNeil however played against the 7th strongest SOS last year at WVU so he’s very tested. The unfortunate news is there might still be an injury with Sueing so that has to be part of this.
38. Oklahoma State

Oklahoma State | 45 NET | on probation last year | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
Moussa Cisse | 6-10, 220 | 7.2ppg, 6.5rpg | 21.9 | Jr |
Kalib Boone | 6-9, 220 | 9.4ppg, 5.4rpg(2021) | 23.9 | Sr |
Caleb Asberry | 6-3, 170 | 13.6ppg, 4.5rpg(@Texas St) | 20.4 | So |
Avery Anderson | 6-3, 170 | 12.1ppg, 3.2rpg | 13.9 | Sr |
John-Michael Wright | 6-1, 185 | 20.7ppg, 5.2rpg (2021@HighPoiint) | 25.9 | Sr |
Russell Harrison | 6-7, 200 | 13.1ppg, 5.5rpg(@ULM) | 17 | Gr |
Bryce Thompson | 6-5, 188 | 10.6ppg, 2.3rpg | 11.8 | Jr |
Tyreek Smith | 6-7, 220 | 3.5ppg, 2.8rpg | 18.6 | Jr |
Woody Newton | 6-8, 200 | 2.1ppg, 0.9rpg | 10.7 | So |
Chris Harris | 6-2, 200 | 3.4ppg, 1.1rpg(2021) | 4.1 | So-r |
Peak Efficiency Adjusted by SOS | Returning Players in the Top 300 |
---|---|
136 | John-Michael Wright |
This was a great defensive team last year and returning Cisse, I don’t see that changing. This is a team that could easily move into the top 25 if Wright and Asberry can transition to a P5 conference and just be solid enough. Not even great, just help the terrible offense out of the gutter. Wright was incredible individually 2 seasons ago at High Point, but down a little last year. I think he has the better chance, and they really need the offensive help. This is a nice, deep team with upside tied mostly to how Wright transitions up several levels and if Boynton will actually play Boone more than 11 minutes a game. He was awesome last year when he did play. If I knew for a fact he would play 25 to 30 minutes I would have them top 30.
39. Villanova

Villanova | 6 NET | 2 seed | F4 | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Eric Dixon | 6-8, 260 | 9.1ppg, 6.4rpg | 21.9 | Sr |
Cameron Whitmore | 6-7, 220 | 5* | Fr | |
Brandon Slater | 6-6, 211 | 8.3ppg, 3.7rpg | 15,1 | Gr |
Caleb Daniels | 6-4, 210 | 10.2ppg,3.8rpg | 15.3 | Sr |
Mark Armstrong | 6-2, 185 | 4* | Fr | |
Chris Arcidiacono | 6-5, 196 | 1.6ppg, 1.0rpg | 9.3 | So |
Jordan Longino | 6-5, 220 | 1.8ppg, 0.8rpg | 7.3 | So |
Branden Hausen | 6-4, 180 | 4* | Fr | |
Justin Moore* | 6-4, 210 | 14.8ppg, 4.8rpg(torn Achiles) | 18.1 | Sr |
Peak Efficiency Adjusted by SOS | Returning Players in the Top 300 |
---|---|
39 | Eric Dixon |
139 | Justin Moore* |
242 | Caleb Daniels |
258 | Brandon Slater |
This one isn’t fun, it’s mostly because of injury but also Jay Wright. Most previews seem to gloss over the fact Moore tore his Achilles on April 2nd. Is he really to be depended on starting 8 months from now? I don’t think so.
Neptune showed some positive aspects in a mild turnaround at Fordham and at least kicked off the training wheels, unlike Scheyer. Still, there is a big difference between Jay Wright and Kyle Neptune, even before injuries and attrition.
Dixon, Slater, and Daniels can keep them afloat enough to around bubble level if one of the freshmen can step up. Whitmore seems like the best bet, and they will need him to be big time and live up to the top 15 billing unless Moore comes back strong way earlier. I wouldn’t expect that given the severity of his injury if he comes back at all to be the same player at that stage of recovery. There are far to many question marks around this team for me to put them any higher.
40. Providence

Providence | 24 NET | 4 seed | S16 | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Clifton Moore | 6-10, 220 | 12.9ppg, 6.1rpg(@La Salle) | 21.2 | Gr |
Ed Croswell | 6-8, 245 | 5.3ppg, 4.7rpg | 22.9 | Gr |
Devin Carter | 6-3, 188 | 9.8ppg, 3.8rpg(@S. Carolina) | 17.7 | So |
Noah Locke | 6-3, 203 | 9.6ppg,2.3rpg(@Louisville) | 10.5 | Sr |
Jared Bynum | 5-10, 180 | 12.2ppg, 4.0apg | 19.1 | Sr |
Bryce Hopkins | 6-6, 220 | 2.1ppg, 1.4rpg(@Kentucky) | 12.1 | So |
Alyn Breed | 6-3, 180 | 3.2ppg, 1.2rpg | 6.4 | Jr |
Corey Floyd | 6-4, 205 | UConn didn’t play | Fr | |
Jayden Pierre | 6-2, 165 | 4* | Fr | |
Quant’e Berry | 6-5, 175 | 4* | Fr |
Peak Efficiency Adjusted by SOS | Returning Players in the Top 300 |
---|---|
104 | Clifton Moore |
128 | Jared Bynum |
It helps a lot to have a returning senior PG as good as they do in Bynum with so many new parts. It’s going to be an asset to have him directing these new guys. I expect Locke to get his shooting stroke back he had at Florida, and the post projects as strong just not deep. Carter is young and has room to grow a lot between years 1 and 2. Add another solid post option and I’d feel much better about the depth with covid and injury always lurking.
41. Wisconsin

Wisconsin | 25 NET | 3 seed | 2R | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Steven Crowl | 7-0, 217 | 8.8ppg,4.4rpg | 16.5 | Jr |
Tyler Wahl | 6-9, 220 | 11.4ppg, 5.9rpg | 19 | Sr |
Jahcobi Neath | 6-3, 200 | 1.6ppg, 1.5rpg | 6 | Sr |
Max Klesmit | 6-3, 180 | 14.9ppg, 2.9rpg(@Wofford) | 18.6 | So |
Chucky Hepburn | 6-2, 211 | 7.2ppg, 2.3apg | 10.6 | So |
Jordan Davis | 6-4, 200 | 1.3ppg, 0.9rpg | 6.7 | So |
Kamari McGhee | 6-0, 185 | 11.6ppg, 2.8rpg(@Green Bay) | 11 | So |
Connor Essegian | 6-4, 190 | 3* | Fr |
Peak Efficiency Adjusted by SOS | |
---|---|
107 | Tyler Wahl |
195 | Steven Crowl |
275 | Max Klesmit |
This isn’t your normal Wisconsin team. They have enough in the post that they aren’t going to get trucked there and can probably inflict some damage, but this guard play is sketchy. When you will have to depend on inefficient mid-major guys like McGhee I’d be concerned. Neath has had a little better caliber of seasons at Wake Forest previously, so I give him the starting nod, but it doesn’t inspire much confidence either. I don’t really like this team and I don’t like the depth at all, but they do have continuity and a style of play that seems to work in their favor. The post is solid and they have an experienced point guard. Klesmit should add enough shooting and additional help to put them here.
42. Purdue

Purdue | 12 NET | 3 seed | S16 | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Zach Edey | 7-4, 285 | 14.4ppg, 7.7rpg | 40.9 | Jr |
Caleb Furst | 6-10, 215 | 4.1ppg, 3.2rpg | 15.8 | So |
Mason Gillis | 6-6, 230 | 6.4ppg, 4.8rpg | 15.3 | Jr |
David Jenkins | 6-2, 195 | 14.8ppg, 2.4rpg(@UNLV 2021) | 15.9 | Sr |
Fletcher Loyer | 6-3, 185 | 4* | Fr | |
Brandon Newman | 6-5, 195 | 4.6ppg | 11.8 | Jr |
Ethan Morton | 6-6, 215 | 2.4ppg, 1.4apg | 11.9 | Jr |
Braden Smith | 5-10, 180 | 4* | Fr | |
Camden Heide | 6-5, 180 | 4* | Fr | |
Trey Kaufman | 6-9, 225 | 4* Redshirt | Fr |
Peak Efficiency Adjusted by SOS | Returning Players in the Top 300 |
---|---|
1 | Zach Edey |
This is the season Zach Edey actually has to finally get unleashed, hallelujah. They have little else. It was so frustrating Painter couldn’t figure out a way to get Edey and Williams on the court together at all last year instead of wasting both away on the bench for half the game. Sure, it wouldn’t have been an ideal fit but when you have two of the best players in the nation they got to be on the court, fit or not. Especially the way Williams moved and passed and could handle the ball, and how they already worked in completely different areas of the court. That was a big miss, not constructing a way to play both together.
I think Edey could be the best statistical player in the nation if any of these guards can actually get him the ball. Unfortunately, I think he will need to be to drag this team anywhere near the NCAA’s. 23ppg 12rpg? I believe a line like that is possible with 30 minutes of run but would that even be enough?
They are going to be dependent on a freshman PG at this point. Right now, Loyer seems to be the most likely. He averaged 27ppg, 3.6apg in high school as a senior and shot 37% from three. If he can’t do it the task will likely fall to 5-10 Braden Smith averaged 18ppg 6apg and shot 42% from distance. If they had a more proven PG option at least, I would feel much better about this team. With hundreds of them out there how did they not land one.
Late in June, they tried, landing David Jenkins from Utah who is an accomplished undersized SG but not a player that has ever shown any ability to facilitate. I guess they offered him a chance to try to be the PG. I do not think it will work but he will still be a valuable addition having his proven 3-point shooting will help a lot and gives them an experienced starter and guard that they really needed. They just need a couple more in my opinion. Edey should still be good enough to get them here if he plays anywhere close to what he did per minute last year and adds 10 minutes of court time or more. I believe he will.
43. Michigan

Michigan | 27 NET | 11 seed | S16 | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Hunter Dickinson | 7-1, 255 | 18.6ppg, 8.6rpg | 28.8 | Jr |
Terrance Williams | 6-7, 240 | 4.7ppg, 2.4rpg | 12.9 | Jr |
Jett Howard | 6-7, 185 | 4* | Fr | |
Kobe Bufkin | 6-4, 175 | 3.0ppg, 1.1rpg | 9.4 | So |
Jaelin Llewellyn | 6-2, 175 | 15.7ppg, 2.5apg (@Princeton) | 18.3 | Jr |
Joey Baker | 6-6, 201 | 4.5ppg, 1.2rpg (@Duke) | 13.6 | Gr |
Tarris Reed | 6-9, 230 | 4* | Fr | |
Dug McDaniel | 5-9, 150 | 4* | Fr | |
Gregg Glenn | 6-6, 220 | 4* | Fr |
Peak Efficiency Adjusted by SOS | Returning Players in the Top 300 |
---|---|
7 | Hunter Dickinson |
I guess we are in the Big 10 portion of the rankings, it’s another team driven primarily by one post player. When I first started working on this team, I dropped them into the 30s because I wasn’t a believer in Llewellyn as a facilitator. After the draft deadline to stay in this team developed bigger issues when Houstan and Diabate somewhat unexpectedly stayed in the draft. I didn’t like the guard play before that but now there are more question marks.
Whether on purpose or not Howard had set the team up where his son needed to play a large role. Now there is really no other option. Dickinson is a beast but someone has to get him the ball. I still believe Llewellyn is more of an off the ball guy, and he didn’t even facilitate in the Ivy League. The only other option is a 5-9, 150lb freshman. It was a tough draft deadline for sure but this team had to guard issues brewing even before that. Losing Houstan and Diabate didn’t cripple their team entirely with a great player like Dickinson, but it does hurt the defense and depth. It also puts more pressure on younger players immediately. They were able to added Joey Baker from Duke since my initial previews to at least solidify the wings a little if Howard isn’t up for the task. Obviously, he projects more as a role player but he will be valuable experienced depth for sure and may be depended on for more given the question.
44. Iowa State

Iowa State | 41 NET | 11 seed | S16 | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Osun Osunniyi | 6-10, 220 | 11.3, 7.5rpg(@St Bonny) | 24.5 | Sr |
Alijaz Kunc | 6-8, 212 | 6.0ppg, 4.1rpg | 15 | Gr |
Jaren Holmes | 6-4, 215 | 13.5ppg, 5.0rpg(@St Bonny) | 15.1 | Sr |
Gabe Kalscheur | 6-4, 200 | 9.6ppg, 2.4rpg | 6 | Sr |
Jeremiah Williams | 6-5, 185 | 9.5ppg, 4.3apg(@Temple) | 15.1 | So |
Hason Ward | 6-9, 200 | 6.5ppg, 4.8rpg(@VCU | 17.8 | Sr |
Tre King | 6-9, 225 | 14.9ppg, 6.2rpg(@EKU 2020) | 20.9 | Jr |
Caleb Grill | 6-3, 196 | 6.4ppg, 2.6rpg | 12.2 | Sr |
Tamin Lipsey | 6-0, 170 | 4* | Fr | |
Eli King | 6-3, 185 | 4* | Fr |
Peak Efficiency Adjusted by SOS | Returning Players in the Top 300 |
---|---|
35 | Osun Osunniyi |
282 | Jaren Holmes |
One of the biggest turnarounds you will ever see last year for 1st year coach T.J. Otzelberger. I like the rebuilt roster again. Osunniyi with his 7’8″ wingspan should help anchor another solid defense. Having his teammate from St Bonaventure who he’s played so many minutes together should help with some continuity earlier than most transfer-heavy classes.
I believe the key is getting more from Kalscheur. His shooting has left him in a big way, but if he can revert to Minnesota-Kalscheur then this team has upside. It’s harder to believe in a guy who hasn’t done it at a high level since the 20teens, but generally, when you show me the ceiling as a player I’m going to believe he can get back if there was no major injury.
Unfortunately, here there is a finger surgery that seems to have done that. He was trending down even prior to the injury, still I find it hard to believe a broke finger is all of the problems here now. I think he can get back to at least a passable average level (34%) shooter. He doesn’t have to be 41% from three like in 2019 on high volume, just don’t be 23% would help a lot.
45. West Virginia

West Virginia | 73 NET | |||
---|---|---|---|---|
Mohamed Wague | 6-9, 200 | 14.8ppg, 11.9rpg (JUCO) | Jr | |
Tre Mitchell | 6-9, 240 | 18.8ppg, 8.2rpg(2021@UMass) | 26.9 | Sr |
Emmitt Matthews Jr. | 6-7, 215 | 11.7ppg, 4.7rpg(@Washington) | 14.4 | Gr |
Erik Stevenson | 6-3, 198 | 11.6ppg, 4.7rpg(@S. Carolina) | 16.1 | Sr |
Joe Toussaint | 6-0, 190 | 4.3ppg, 3.2apg(@Iowa) | 14.9 | Sr |
Kedrian Johnson | 6-3, 180 | 5.3ppg, 1.7apg | 12.2 | Gr |
Patrick Suemnick | 6-8, 220 | 12.0ppg, 6.1rpg (JUCO) | Jr | |
Jimmy Bell | 6-10, 270 | 9.3ppg, 9.1rpg (JUCO) | Jr | |
Kobe Johnson | 6-3, 210 | 1.5ppg, 0.7rpg | 7.6 |
Peak Efficiency Adjusted by SOS | Returning Players in the Top 300 |
---|---|
15 | Tre Mitchell |
270 | Erik Stevenson |
This is really just a ranking for Tre Mitchell and Bob Huggins. It’s a weird partnership but I am a lot higher on Mitchell than most. I think he’s one of the best transfers even though he didn’t play much at Texas. I don’t think he did anything there to discredit his resume from UMass while there. He was still highly productive when he played.
Huggins is still one of the best coaches, so I think he’s going to figure this out. They played such a brutal SOS last year, but he should be on the other end of the wins more this season. If they could shoot 3’s at all I would consider moving them higher.
Maybe this is the year Stevenson makes some outside shots. That’s what he’s supposed to be good at in theory you would think even though he’s a career 30% three point shooter. He somehow made 61-62 FT’s last year so maybe he can have some anomaly year from three. I do worry about the 3 point shooting overall.
46. Virginia Tech

Virginia Tech | 22 NET | |||
---|---|---|---|---|
Grant Basile | 6-9 | 18.4 Pts, 8.5 Reb(@Wright St) | 25.1 | Sr |
Justyn Mutts | 6-7 | 10.1 Pts, 7.4 Reb | 20.9 | Sr |
Darius Maddox | 6-5 | 6.4 Pts, 1.9 Reb | 17.6 | Jr |
Hunter Cattoor | 6-3 | 10.0 Pts, 4.0 Reb | 15.1 | Sr |
Sean Pedulla | 6-1 | 5.4 Pts, 1.3 Ast | 17.9 | So |
Sean Pedulla | 6-1 | 5.4 Pts, 1.3 Ast | 17.9 | So |
Mylyjael Poteat | 6-9 | 7.7 Pts, 4.2 Reb(@Rice) | 24.4 | So |
Peak Efficiency Adjusted by SOS | Returning Players in the Top 300 |
---|---|
55 | Justyn Mutts |
149 | Grant Basile |
259 | Hunter Cattoor |
Virginia Tech got a raw deal last year with an 11 seed. This is a team that deserved much better with a 22 NET ranking and having just won the ACC tournament the day before. They got an unexpected, nice surprise when Justyn Mutts withdrew his name from the NBA draft. They do still have big shoes to fill with Keve Aluma. They did very well for themselves, adding a couple of other ground bound productive centers in Grant Basile and Mylyjael Poteat. The real question will be how well they hold up on defense, I expect them to still remain quite productive on offense. Basile is the most likely starter, and he did anchor a top 75 NET Wright State team 2 seasons ago. Wright State had a very good 22nd ranked defense with him playing 27 minutes a game albeit vs a low major schedule. Things didn’t go as well last year 241st defense. I do not think the losses of Alleyne and Murphy are all that major. They should be able to replace them internally. This is a team should still have a lot of bite.
47. Arizona State

Arizona State | 100 NET | |||
---|---|---|---|---|
Warren Washington | 7-1, 215 | 10.5ppg, 6.6rpg(@Nevada) | 22.9 | Sr |
Devan Cambridge | 6-6, 215 | 8.9ppg, 3.6rpg(2021) | 11.3 | Sr |
Desmond Cambridge | 6-4, 180 | 16.2ppg, 5.1rpg(@Nevada) | 20.2 | Gr |
DJ Horne | 6-0, 175 | 12.5ppg, 2.9rpg | 13.1 | Jr |
Marcus Bagley | 6-1, 200 | 10.4ppg, 4.0apg | 15.6 | Gr |
Frankie Collins | 6-1, 185 | 2.8ppg, 1.4apg(@ Mich) | 8.7 | So |
Luther Muhammad | 6-3, 185 | 5.2ppg, 2.3rpg | 7.8 | Gr |
Alonzo Gaffney | 6-9, 200 | 4.2ppg, 3.6rpg | 11.1 | Sr |
Enoch Boakye | 6-10, 240 | 2.0ppg, 3.5rpg | 9.8 | So |
Peak Efficiency Adjusted by SOS | Returning Players in the Top 300 |
---|---|
60 | Warren Washington |
133 | Desmond Cambridge |
This team was not very inspiring at first glance, but when I looked at what else was left at the bottom of the Pac 12 I concluded someone has to win games. I generally wouldn’t have thought some parts off a #125 NET Nevada would make them this level of team, but they were some of the few good parts. They also get a little bonus for bringing in teammates and brothers which should help them get off to a little better start with early season chemistry that most teams with new pieces won’t have.
The roster just seems a lot better and there will still be enough strength at the top in the Pac 12 someone has to fall in this range. I would say having an experienced backcourt and continuity helps, but this offense was atrocious 328th last year. Washington and Desmond Cambridge should help at least help it run more efficiently. This team probably needs to get to an NCAA to save Hurley’s job and I think they are capable.
48. Michigan State

Michigan State | 38 NET | 7 seed | 2R | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Joey Hauser | 6-9, 220 | 7.3ppg, 5.3rpg | 15.9 | Gr |
Malik Hall | 6-7, 215 | 8.9ppg, 4.6rpg | 17.9 | Sr |
A.J. Hoggard | 6-3, 220 | 7.0ppg, 4.8apg | 17 | Jr |
Jaden Akins | 6-4 180 | 3.4ppg, 2.4rpg | 10.8 | So |
Tyson Walker | 6-0, 162 | 8.2ppg, 4.3apg | 16.2 | Sr |
Mady Sissoko | 6-9, 230 | 1.1ppg, 1.0rpg | 10.9 | So |
Jaxon Kohler | 6-9, 250 | 4* | Fr | |
Tre Holloman | 6-2, 175 | 4* | Fr |
Peak Efficiency Adjusted by SOS | Returning Players in the Top 300 |
---|---|
209 | Tyson Walker |
219 | Joey Hauser |
There isn’t much popping on this roster. Izzo is complaining about the NIL and talking about retiring so he must know how bad this team could be. Continuity seems to be about the only selling point here and a great coach that hopefully can work some magic.
This pick is more of a respectful nod to Izzo than the roster at this point because this seems like a team of solid role players. I do not expect anything more than to be on the NCAA bubble. This might be the year they could even miss out after 25 straight years. At the end of the day, there is probably enough to get them on them in but a double-digit seed seems like the ceiling unless they added someone else and they never did.
49. Cincinnati

Cincinnati | 96 NET | |||
---|---|---|---|---|
Kalu Ezikpe | 6-8, 235 | 11.3ppg, 7.1rpg(@ODU) | 22.7 | |
Landers Nolley | 6-7, 220 | 13.1ppg, 4.1rpg(2021@Memphis) | 16.2 | |
Jeremiah Davenport | 6-7, 205 | 13.4ppg, 5.5rpg | 18.1 | Sr |
Rob Phinisee | 6-1, 187 | 7.1ppg, 2.9apg(2021@Indiana) | 9.3 | |
David DeJulius | 6-0, 195 | 14.5ppg, 2.6apg | 17.5 | Gr |
Mika Adams-Woods | 6-3, 185 | 8.6ppg, 3.1apg | 12.2 | Sr |
John Newman | 6-5, 207 | 6.9ppg, 4.2rpg | 12.3 | Gr |
Viktor Lakhin | 6-11, 228 | 4.2ppg, 3.5rpg | 19.5 | Jr |
Ody Oguama | 6-9, 225 | 4.2ppg, 4.2rpg | 16.4 | Sr |
Sage Tolentino | 7-0, 215 | 4* | Fr |
Peak Efficiency Adjusted by SOS | Returning Players in the Top 300 |
---|---|
134 | Kalu Ezikpe |
225 | Jeremiah Davenport |
226 | David DeJulius |
288 | Landers Nolley |
Last season wasn’t good, but it was Wes Miller’s first. I really like this roster both with quality and depth. The transfer adds were strong, and he returns a nice core with Davenport, DeJulius, and Adam’s-Woods. It took Miller a few years at the start to get some on the job training at UNCG, but by the end of his tenure there he had really figured the job out.
UNCG had several teams in the 50-80 range by the end. He did more at UNCG with a lot fewer resources than he has at Cincinnati. I think we?ll see them start to trend up, it just feels natural with the experience and reinforcements. After a year of adjustment to the American Conference and the level Miller needs to recruit at and just more familiarity with what it takes. All the first year stress of going to new places and settling in that can derail some starts are at least behind Miller now.
50. Maryland

Maryland | 90 NET | |||
---|---|---|---|---|
Julian Reese | 6-9, 230 | 5.7ppg, 4.4rpg | 15.8 | So |
Donta Scott | 6-7,220 | 12.6ppg, 6.2rpg | 16.4 | Sr |
Hakim Hart | 6-6, 200 | 9.9ppg, 3.6rpg | 18.7 | Sr |
Donald Carey | 6-5, 187 | 13.5ppg, 4.4rpg(@Georgetown) | 17.3 | Gr |
Jahmir Young | 6-2, 185 | 19.6ppg, 5.9rpg(@UNCC) | 25.1 | Jr |
Ian Martinez | 6-3, 185 | 5.2ppg, 1.9rpg (@Utah 2021) | 15.3 | Jr |
Jahari Long | 6-5, 210 | 1.0ppg(@Seton Hall) | Jr | |
Noah Batchelor | 6-7, 190 | 4* | Fr | |
Arnaud Revaz | 6-10, 220 | did not play | So |
Peak Efficiency Adjusted by SOS | Returning Players in the Top 300 |
---|---|
73 | Jahmir Young |
121 | Hakim Hart |
158 | Donald Carey |
201 | Donta Scott |
This isn’t a bad roster, I really like the additions of Carey and Young. Hart seems like he can expand his role as well. The post is where the question marks seem to be and overall depth, but I think there is enough to be passable. Martinez could be in for a bounce back season. I posted his 2021 stats at Utah as opposed to last year because he’s shown that sort of ceiling, so I will choose to believe he can be more than what he was last year with his pedigree. The coaching change should help, and this team needs him to play a positive role. Willard is more competent than Manning so the late 40s seems around the right spot and his typical level of water he treads at. He just seems like a younger version of Turgeon that will have them around the bubble, but at least it’s a fresh start which they clearly wanted.
Close
Clemson

Clemson | #81 NET | |||
---|---|---|---|---|
PJ Hall | 6-10, 235 | 15.5ppg, 5.8rpg | 24.4 | Jr |
Hunter Tyson | 6-8, 215 | 10.0ppg, 5.5rpg | 19.2 | Gr |
Brevin Galloway | 6-2, 215 | 8.3ppg, 1.4apg(@ Boston College) | 8.9 | Gr |
Alex Hemenway | 6-3, 185 | 5.2ppg, 1.3rpg | 12.7 | Sr |
Chase Hunter | 6-3, 204 | 6.7ppg, 1.8apg | 13 | Sr |
Dillon Hunter | 6-3, 175 | 4* | Fr | |
R.J. Godfrey | 6-4, 180 | 4* | Fr | |
Ian Schieffelin | 6-8, 225 | 3.1ppg, 2.8rpg | 12.1 | So |
Ben Middlebrooks | 6-10, 225 | 1.2ppg, 1.1rpg | 10.3 | So |
Peak Efficiency Adjusted by SOS | Returning Players in the Top 300 |
---|---|
23 | PJ Hall |
148 | Hunter Tyson |
Brownell is competent enough, and he has a floor raiser big and enough experience and shooting around him to check in at this level. This is kind of where Brownell lives over time though and at some point, you would think the extended mediocrity might be enough for Clemson to move on. I think his seat is a little warm so he may need to get to the NCAA. On paper he probably has enough talent to but I think this is kind of where he ends up.
Butler

Butler | 117 NET | |||
---|---|---|---|---|
Manny Bates | 6-11, 230 | 9.8ppg, 5.9rpg (2021@ NC St) | 22.8 | Jr |
Simas Lukosius | 6-6, 230 | 6.8ppg, 3.3rpg | 11.2 | So |
Ali Ali | 6-8, 206 | 13.9ppg, 2.5apg(@Akron) | 15.4 | Jr |
Chuck Harris | 6-2, 190 | 11.4ppg, 2.7rpg | 11 | Jr |
Eric Hunter | 6-4, 170 | 6.2ppg, 2.0apg(@Purdue) | 11 | Gr |
Jayden Taylor | 6-4, 190 | 8.2ppg, 2.9rpg | 11.9 | So |
Jalen Thomas | 6-10, 230 | 7.9ppg, 6.2rpg(@GSU) | 16.6 | Sr |
Myles Tate | 6-0, 170 | 6.7ppg, 2.3apg(2021) | 9.7 | So |
Conner Turnbull | 6-10, 215 | 3* | Fr |
Peak Efficiency Adjusted by SOS | Returning Players in the Top 300 |
---|---|
64 | Manny Bates |
207 | Chuck Harris |
This roster isn’t the best, but Thad Matta has made progress in a short period of time. If Bates is healthy and can anchor the defense, there is a path for improvement with better coaching. Harris was also better 2 seasons ago. I would expect him to find that shooting stroke again and at least be above average shooting the ball closer to his career average numbers which will help. It’s really a close tie between Clemson and Butler. I think Clemson has the better roster, but Matta is one of the best coaches in the nation that helps split the difference.
Others that graded out highly by Peak Efficiency Adjusted by SOS
*Here is a little preview of where we are headed in the future. Looking over most of these teams they graded out highly, especially with star power but there were warts I didn’t like with the depth, coaching, or fit. We will dig into that in later previews.
St John’s

Peak Efficiency Adjusted by SOS | Returning Players in the Top 300 |
---|---|
67 | David Jones |
69 | Posh Alexander |
137 | Andre Curbelo |
Drake

Peak Efficiency Adjusted by SOS | Returning Players in the Top 300 |
---|---|
86 | Garrett Sturtz |
143 | Tucker DeVries |
153 | Roman Penn |
Furman

Peak Efficiency Adjusted by SOS | Returning Players in the Top 300 |
---|---|
30 | Jalen Slawson |
127 | Mike Bothwell |
Tulane

Peak Efficiency Adjusted by SOS | Returning Players in the Top 300 |
---|---|
37 | Kevin Cross |
97 | Jalen Cook |
North Texas

Peak Efficiency Adjusted by SOS | Returning Players in the Top 300 |
---|---|
61 | Tylor Perry |
157 | Abou Ousmane |
Wake Forest

Peak Efficiency Adjusted by SOS | Returning Players in the Top 300 |
---|---|
85 | Jao Ituka |
284 | Andrew Carr |
286 | Tyree Appleby |
Stanford

Peak Efficiency Adjusted by SOS | Returning Players in the Top 300 |
---|---|
79 | Spencer Jones |
191 | Mike Jones |
Syracuse

Peak Efficiency Adjusted by SOS | Returning Players in the Top 300 |
---|---|
9 | Jesse Edwards |
194 | Joseph Girard |
Utah

Peak Efficiency Adjusted by SOS | Returning Players in the Top 300 |
---|---|
57 | Branden Carlson |
294 | Marco Anthony |
Notre Dame

Peak Efficiency Adjusted by SOS | Returning Players in the Top 300 |
---|---|
172 | Dane Goodwin |
227 | Cormic Ryan |
246 | Nate Laszewski |
George Mason

Peak Efficiency Adjusted by SOS | Returning Players in the Top 300 |
---|---|
18 | Josh Oduro |
293 | Victor Bailey |
295 | Davonte Gaines |
Mississippi State

Peak Efficiency Adjusted by SOS | Returning Players in the Top 300 |
---|---|
16 | Tolu Smith |
214 | DeShawn Davis |
Davidson

Peak Efficiency Adjusted by SOS | Returning Players in the Top 300 |
---|---|
46 | Foster Loyer |
271 | Sam Mennenga |
Florida State

Peak Efficiency Adjusted by SOS | Returning Players in the Top 300 |
---|---|
87 | Jaylan Gainey |
125 | Caleb Mills |
218 | Matthew Cleveland |
NC State

Peak Efficiency Adjusted by SOS | Returning Players in the Top 300 |
---|---|
71 | DJ Burns |
100 | Terquavion Smith |
230 | Jarkel Joiner |
Georgia

Peak Efficiency Adjusted by SOS | Returning Players in the Top 300 |
---|---|
88 | Braelen Bridges |
108 | Terry Roberts |
173 | Kario Oquendo |
Loyola Chicago

Peak Efficiency Adjusted by SOS | Returning Players in the Top 300 |
---|---|
216 | Marquise Kennedy |
228 | Sheldon Edwards |
289 | Bryce Golden |
Ole Miss

Peak Efficiency Adjusted by SOS | Returning Players in the Top 300 |
---|---|
210 | Daeshun Ruffin |
239 | Theo Akwuba |
244 | Josh Mballa |
This is it for now, check back because we will continue to adjust these rotations, and expand this list to more teams if your team didn’t make it.
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