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TRN’s 2023 NBA MVP & Awards

We only have a week left in the NBA regular season so it’s awards time. These awards are really close. Here are the key numbers by sports reference.

Top Candidates Table
Rk Player Team W L G MP eFG% FTA FT% TRB AST STL BLK TOV PTS Prob%
1 Nikola Jokić DEN 51 26 67 33.9 .663 6.1 .823 11.9 9.9 1.2 0.7 3.5 24.9 64.3%
2 Joel Embiid PHI 51 26 63 34.7 .569 11.9 .857 10.2 4.1 1.0 1.7 3.5 33.0 11.7%
3 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 55 22 61 32.1 .569 12.2 .648 11.8 5.6 0.8 0.8 3.8 31.1 7.5%
4 James Harden PHI 51 26 55 37.0 .537 6.5 .865 6.2 10.9 1.3 0.5 3.4 21.3 3.8%
5 Jayson Tatum BOS 54 24 72 37.2 .545 8.4 .857 8.9 4.6 1.0 0.7 2.9 30.3 3.6%
6 Domantas Sabonis SAC 47 30 75 34.8 .628 5.5 .754 12.4 7.2 0.8 0.5 2.9 19.1 3.1%
7 Luka Dončić DAL 37 41 63 36.4 .563 10.7 .741 8.7 8.1 1.4 0.5 3.7 32.9 2.9%
8 Jimmy Butler MIA 41 37 62 33.4 .554 8.7 .851 5.9 5.3 1.8 0.3 1.6 22.8 1.2%
9 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 38 40 65 35.5 .531 10.8 .906 4.8 5.4 1.7 1.0 2.9 31.4 1.0%
10 Damian Lillard POR 32 45 58 36.3 .564 9.6 .914 4.8 7.3 0.9 0.3 3.3 32.2 0.8%
Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 4/2/2023.

There are a few things at play here. It’s been over 3 decades since a player has won three in a row. Giving the award to Nikola Jokic would be historic. For me that shouldn’t matter or be a consideration, but for some, I’m sure it will be hard to give it to Jokic when players like Michael Jordan or LeBron James never won three in a row. There has always been some level of voter fatigue.

You also have the fact that Joel Embiid is very deserving and has been in the mix for multiple years now but has never won one. For me it’s really just a two man race. Giannis Antetokounmpo has played fewer games and hasn’t been at the same level.

Advanced Table
Rk Player Tm G PER
TS% USG% WS WS/48 BPM VORP
1 Nikola Jokić DEN 67 31.9 .704 27.2 15.0 .318 13.3 8.8
2 Joel Embiid PHI 63 31.3 .653 37.2 11.7 .258 8.9 6.0
3 Luka Dončić DAL 63 29.2 .612 38.0 10.1 .211 9.3 6.5
4 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 61 29.0 .604 38.7 8.4 .206 8.5 5.2
5 Anthony Davis LAL 51 27.9 .631 28.8 8.1 .226 6.4 3.7
6 Jimmy Butler MIA 62 27.4 .643 25.7 11.7 .271 8.4 5.5
7 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 65 27.3 .625 32.9 10.8 .225 7.2 5.3
8 Damian Lillard POR 58 26.9 .645 33.9 9.3 .212 7.1 4.9
9 Kevin Durant TOT 44 26.3 .678 31.0 6.4 .198 7.3 3.7
10 Stephen Curry GSW 52 24.3 .661 31.0 7.2 .191 7.7 4.4
11 Kawhi Leonard LAC 49 24.1 .624 27.0 6.7 .197 6.3 3.4
12 LeBron James LAL 50 23.9 .581 33.2 5.2 .139 6.0 3.6
13 Jayson Tatum BOS 72 23.8 .609 32.7 10.4 .186 5.6 5.1
14 Tyrese Haliburton IND 56 23.6 .624 23.8 7.7 .196 7.2 4.4
15 Ja Morant MEM 58 23.6 .556 35.4 5.9 .152 5.9 3.7
16 Domantas Sabonis SAC 75 23.3 .666 21.4 12.0 .221 5.7 5.1
17 Kristaps Porziņģis WAS 65 23.2 .627 27.5 7.8 .177 4.3 3.4
18 Donovan Mitchell CLE 66 22.7 .610 32.0 8.5 .173 6.1 4.8
19 Devin Booker PHO 50 22.3 .602 32.1 5.8 .160 4.5 2.8
20 Clint Capela ATL 61 22.3 .652 15.8 6.8 .202 2.2 1.7
21 Kyrie Irving TOT 58 22.3 .611 28.9 7.1 .157 3.9 3.2
22 Lauri Markkanen UTA 65 22.2 .643 26.5 8.2 .176 3.8 3.3
23 James Harden PHI 55 22.0 .610 25.2 8.3 .195 5.6 4.0
24 Trae Young ATL 70 22.0 .572 32.9 6.2 .124 3.3 3.2
25 De’Aaron Fox SAC 69 21.8 .604 29.9 7.2 .148 2.5 2.6
Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 4/2/2023.

This is really just a two-horse race in my opinion, and Jokic has the better statistics. He’s played more games and made more of an impact by most key metrics. Embiid is so close though you really hate to see him lose the race or never get an MVP award. They are both have incredible individual years. Jokic is one-tenth of an assist from averaging a triple-double and Embiid is leading the league in scoring as a center.

What inevitably will be brought up is defense. While Embiid I believe Jokic is an underrated defender. He has a 110 Defensive Rating and a +26 net rating. Embiid has a 109 Defensive rating and a 15 net rating. By ESPN’s Real Plus Minus however Embiid is significantly ahead 10.35 vs 7.85. By FiveThrityEight’s Raptor, Jokic is significantly ahead. You can find advanced stats that like both.

As much as it probably shouldn’t matter when it’s this close I’d probably give it to the player that does haven’t one. Over time that’s pretty much how this has worked. It’s not the award for the best player in the league or Jordan and LeBron would have far more MVP’s. Even though he sat in the last game vs Denver which was annoying I’d give it to Embiid.

MVP: Joel Embiid

1st Team All-NBA
Joel Embiid
Giannis Antetokounmpo
Jayson Tatum
Luka Dončić
James Harden
2nd Team All-NBA
Nikola Jokić
Domantas Sabonis
Jimmy Butler
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Damian Lillard
3rd Team All-NBA
Anthony Davis
LeBron James
Kawhi Leonard
Donovan Mitchell
De’Aaron Fox

There is probably a little cheating having Sabonis at PF and not Center. Both he and Anthony Davis should be on an All NBA team though and that’s how they both get on. Mitchell and Fox have played far more games than Ja Morant and Stephen Curry. That was the deciding factor

Defensive Player of the Year: Jaren Jackson Jr

He has the best defensive rating in the NBA by a significant margin (3 points), and Memphis is the top defense. He’s also averaging 3.1 blocks and 1.1 steals per game in only 28 minutes.

Rookie of the Year: Walker Kessler

Paolo Banchero will win the award putting the counting stats up he has, but Walker Kessler has has the best rookie season. If I had a vote I would vote for him. He leads the class with 7 win shares and a 2.1 VORP. It’s really not even close.

60 Selections Table
Roun Tota Shoo Shoo Shoo Per Per Per Per Adva Adva Adva Adva
Rk Pk Tm Player G FG% 3P% FT% MP PTS TRB AST WS
WS/48 BPM VORP
1 22 MEM Walker Kessler 73 .721 .500 .522 23.0 9.2 8.4 0.9 7.0 .201 3.0 2.1
2 12 OKC Jalen Williams 72 .525 .354 .807 30.3 14.1 4.6 3.3 5.6 .123 0.4 1.3
3 13 CHO Jalen Duren 62 .641 .000 .601 24.5 8.9 8.7 1.2 4.2 .134 -0.6 0.5
4 4 SAC Keegan Murray 75 .448 .409 .756 29.6 12.0 4.6 1.2 3.9 .083 -0.7 0.7
5 15 CHO Mark Williams 40 .635 .682 18.6 8.5 6.7 0.5 2.5 .158 0.0 0.4
6 1 ORL Paolo Banchero 70 .427 .292 .747 33.8 20.0 6.8 3.7 2.4 .050 -1.4 0.4
7 17 HOU Tari Eason 78 .451 .348 .750 21.3 9.2 6.0 1.0 2.4 .070 -1.7 0.1
8 16 ATL AJ Griffin 68 .467 .387 .905 19.3 8.8 2.1 1.0 2.1 .076 -0.6 0.5
Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 4/2/2023.

Most Improved Player: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Jalen Brunson or Tyrese Haliburton probably win any other year. Gilgeous-Alexander is the clear most improved player.

Coach of the Year: Mike Brown

Breaking a 16 year missed playoff streak gets you this award.

Sixth Man of the Year: Malcolm Brogdon

Do we really need this award?


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