| Boston College | E. Grant has added a top 225 player in Chad Venning, and Dion Brown was decent add, but this team projects to be in the basement. To make noise you probably would need them to be your 3rd or 4th players, not your top two. |
| Cal | Cal joining the ACC feels like an odd twist in the plot. Berkley meets tobacco road. The biggest storyline might be the travel logistics and how the homecourt advantage shakes out. Cal doesn’t project to be very good, but you could see them playing spoiler on some February night. Rytis Petraitis , coming over from Air Force, is likely their best player, but considering Air Force was 264th in KenPom despite the MWC having one of its stronger seasons ever, that’s not exactly a ringing endorsement. And let’s not forget Andrej Stojakovic who was one of the more overrated transfers nationally—so, yeah, expectations are low. We like mad dog Madsen as a coach, but he was disappointing last year with a lot more talent than this team seems to have. |
| Clemson | Despite losing PJ Hall,, Clemson retains Ian Schieffelin from last season’s Elite 8 run and top-20 finish. Depth and experience will keep them competitive, and they could very well be a top-25 team. Schieffelin is likely to be criminally underrated by most, despite posting a 131 offensive rating (18th in the nation), a nearly +30 net differential, while averaging nearly a double-double. Plus, he had the 3rd highest true shooting percentage in the ACC last year. Keep an eye on him—he is already a major impact player. |
| Duke | The Cooper Flagg hype is getting ridiculous, but I’m not convinced the team deserves those top 5 expectations. The departure of key players leaves some pretty big holes, and while they’ve picked up some solid role players through the portal, I’m still worried about the team’s overall experience. In an era dominated by super seniors, putting your hopes on the shoulders of two 17-year-olds seems like a risky move. Maliq Brown is rated highly in our model—higher than most will have him—but even he’s a bit of a strange fit with Flagg given the lack of shooting. And let’s not forget, there are still concerns about Jon Scheyer‘s coaching. How Duke manages to integrate this new talent will be something to watch closely. If you’re looking for a deeper dive, we’ve got more analysis available here. |
| Florida State | Just a few years ago, Leonard Hamilton was a titan in the ACC, consistently finishing 1st or 2nd and making deep tournament runs, including a Sweet 16 and Elite 8. But now? Things are looking a bit grim. Hamilton sidestepped the challenge of replacing top transfer Jamir Watkins but didn’t exactly surround him with an inspiring cast. Jerry Deng is the best transfer, according to the model, but that’s not saying much when Watkins is carrying the load alone—ranking 11th in the model while the next best player, Chandler Jackson, comes in at a dismal 589th. The biggest gap in the nation. This is starting to feel a lot like the Bobby Bowden situation. If Hamilton doesn’t find a way to win big again—or step aside—the decision might be made for him soon at 76 years old. |
| Georgia Tech | Stoudamire helped Georgia Tech pull off some surprising upsets last year and has the benefit of returning some continuity, but let’s be real—this isn’t going to be a competitive team beyond a couple upsets. This team is pretty boring, to be honest. But they’ve probably got just enough going for them to avoid the basement in the ACC. |
| Louisville | Kelsey has coached for 12 seasons, three at the College of Charleston, and nine at Winthrop. He only has one top 100 KenPom finish, which was #71. While his records are impressive, and I appreciate his recruitment of transfers, the substance is a bit thin. Those are both jobs where coaches have won at a higher level as well. Gregg Marshall had a 51st ranked team at Winthrop for example. There’s talent with J’Vonne Hadley and Chucky Hepburn but I see this more as a bubble team. When you’re fresh off surviving the worst coach in NCAA history, every burger on the menu starts looking like a five-star steak. Louisville is a job you expect it too. |
| Miami | Nijel Pack should have an extra gear, especially considering how much better he was at Kansas State. Once you show us your ceiling, I’ll believe you can get back there. Despite the challenges, the additions of Lynn Kidd and Brandon Johnson offer some real promise. I like the fit together, and Kidd is one of the most underrated players in the nation. Defense remains a recurring question mark, but with more size added this season, they should be better equipped to address it. Larranaga may be aging, much like Hamilton, but he still seems to have the recruiting chops and connection to the game. I think there’s one more impressive run left in him. |
| NC State | The fluke Final Four run might have saved Keats’ job, but his habit of playing too many players often caps the team’s potential. If he tightened the rotation, he’d likely see better results. For instance, playing DJ Burns more minutes last season could have likely secured an at-large bid. During crucial stay alive tourny games, Burns was given more minutes, on back to back days and including a 42 minutes in one game on a day of rest. It’s baffling when coaches underutilize their best player and play them 5th man minutes. Sure, there’s an argument about managing a players endurance, but it’s not like this is the NBA with 82 games and 4 games a week, with a 24-second shot clock, and players in their 30s. NC State wasn’t even a fast-paced team, ranking 165th in pace. He clearly could have played 7 more minutes twice a week and they would have won more games. I don’t see a player like Burns to squander on the bench this season. |
| North Carolina | Baycott’s departure leaves a significant void, but RJ Davis remains a standout, bringing elite talent back to the team. Replacing Baycott’s impact is no easy feat, but the frontcourt of Jae’lyn Withers, Jalen Washington and Ven-Allen Lubin offers a lot of potential. Lubin, who struggled defensively last year while playing center at Vanderbilt with limited support, should benefit from more size in the frontcourt this season. He was forced to start at center last year with a 6-6, 200lb power forward and 3 guards playing most of the minutes beside of him, or a 6-7, 180lb back up power forward off the bench. |
| Notre Dame | Notre Dame brings back significant continuity, which could lead to internal improvements after a lackluster season. However the slow build might be frustrating as a fan compared to other teams like McNeese State, Southern Miss, and Towson, which have made impressive strides with strategic transfers. All three jumped from 340th to top 80 in one season so what should be available to a program like Notre Dame? Shrewsberry’s exceeded expectations sure, but they were low due to his recruiting last year and I don’t think you deserve a much credit for that. Markus Burton had a nice freshman season as an unheralded player. |
| Pitt | Capel, who once faced intense scrutiny and a hot seat, has managed to stabilize his position and land in the bubble zone. We think he will be back in his new home again this season. However, he’s still underachieving for a coach with a top 15-20 salary nationally. Cameron Corhen and Ishmael Leggett are one of the better duo’s in the ACC, but there seems to be a ceiling. |
| SMU | New coach Enfield Kevin Miller and Matt Cross lead SMU into the ACC. Miller is one of the more undervalued players in the ACC and generated a lot of good shots at Wake Forest and made life much easier for Hunter Sallis. |
| Stanford | New coach Kyle Smith’s success in convincing Maxime Raynaud to return is the offseason’s highlight for Stanford, giving them a significant boost. However, with so many West Coast teams shifting conferences, the impact of travel on their performance remains a concern. Maxime Raynaud is one of the best players in the country on one of the worst teams. He seems to have a little more help than Watkins at FSU though. |
| Syracuse | Replacing a legendary coach went better than expected in year one. Losing Judah Mintz, will be the big hole to replace. Eddie Lampkin should be an upgrade in the post. |
| Virginia | Tony Bennett’s system traditionally thrives with stability, but the current landscape of free transfers and NIL deals is a challenge. Jalen Warley is their top transfer. Isaac McKneely brings shooting but little else. Bennett might pull off some magic, but this roster looks very underwhelming. Despite past successes, they finished 68th on KenPom last year with better talent and 76th three years ago. It seems the reality is catching up, and the team may struggle to meet expectations for how most of the world still sees them. That hasn’t been reality during most of the post covid super senior, transfer free NIL era. I think the expectations need to be adjusted as the landscape has changed. I expect the third 68th plus finish in the last four seasons. |
| Virginia Tech | Maybe this is the season Mylyjael Poteat gets and expanded role. He is a highly productive per minute and needs more playtime, and you can’t bet against Rice transfers. If Hysier Miller is given a big role than that would concern me. Toibu Lawal should get an expanded role as well. |
| Wake Forest | Steve Forbes returns significant continuity with Hunter Sallis, Cameron Hildreth, and Efton Reid. The NCAA tournament that as alluded him at Wake Forest should happen this season. If there is one concern however it’s that Ty-Laur Johnson is no Kevin Miller. Miller is one of the more undervalued players in the ACC and generated a lot of good shots at Wake Forest and made life much easier for Hunter Sallis. Sallis will have more pressure on him this seasons offensively. Tre’Von Spillers doesn’t shoot or provide the space to work that Carr did either. |
