End of Year Rankings: Who’s Up & Down

It’s the start of the new year and we always like to take a look at how the careers of top golfers are progressing. Who’s up, and who’s down. We like to take a look at the big picture on golfers. A few years ago when Jordan Spieth was struggling it was hard to see him not regaining form given his age. We felt the same way about Ricky Fowler getting back to his historical form before the season.

The OWGR have changed their formula in the last year, but it does seem to favor the elite players and get it more right. You don’t see the inflated Euro’s or Japanese tour players like in the past end of year rankings. It’s also important to remember a lot of these rankings are still inflated with the LIV guys not receiving points for most of their season’s. Still it’s a good barometer on how these careers are progressing.

Moving On UP

Fowler is Fowler again. It took three years in the wilderness but he’s mostly back.

We thought Jason Day had it in him to rebound like Fowler. The bigger question for him was mentally how he would be after the passing of his mother.

Keegan Bradley is one of those guys we have been waiting to hit form. He’s a guy with top 15 upside, that’s been there and is still relatively young, but that isn’t consistent. You just don’t know when it’s going to come from year to year. Webb Simpson is a similar type of player in that sense.

Rose is a world class player, but when players reach his age (43) you do start to wonder if this is when the decline starts to happen. Not yet. He’s back in the range he’s settled into in recent years similar to Adam Scott. They might take a step back but they are still too good to not factor. If either came out and had a top 15 season next year again it should be a surprise with their talent and career.

Kuchar is now 45 years old, and he never possessed great power or driving. He had old man game 10 years ago. That should serve him well as he enters the new phase of his career. It seemed like the last two years that may be as a 75 to 100 type of player, but he’s back sniffing around the top 50 and making lots of cuts again.

Glover is like the old man version of Keegan Bradley. He’s had many highs, but some big lows. At 44 years old a top 30 end of year finish we wouldn’t have expected at this point in his career or the rollercoaster it has been.

Going The Wrong Way

Justin Thomas. Dropping to 26th isn’t that far, but when you have been at the level of Thomas for 6 years, it is a big deal. He’s just hit 30 years old and even though he’s got power he is a small guy. You have to wonder a little if that was his prime and he’s settling into a different phase where he more of atop 25 type player who jumps up into the top 10 occasionally in his 30’s. Without some of the LIV guys this ranking could even be a few spots uglier.

Matsayama is only 31 but injuries are always a concern. He’s consistently been a top 25 player. This could be moving into a different phase. It’s possible it could get worse before it gets better to, similar to Speith, Fowler and others.

Horchel has been here before, he’s more of a top 40 type player in the aggregate so this isn’t surprising water meets it’s level and he bounces between that range. He’s still young enough at 37 to have another top 20 finish in him, with his game not dependent on power.

A little saving grace is Simpson only played in 35 tournaments so his numbers are a little lower than they should be, but he has been bad while battling injuries. That’s not great as a 38 year old. He should be better than this, but Webb as a top 15 player might be a thing of the past given the injuries, age, and trajectory of late. He always had the talent but never the consistency of a Justin Rose or Adam Scott.

LIV Players

Koepka bounced back nicely this season. LIV doesn’t have points but if you just factored in the tournaments he played in the OWGR or how his year might have looked, he could have finished as high as 3rd or 4th.

The same is true for Phil. What is incredible at the age of 53 he still could have been a top 15 type of player after a 2nd place finish at the Masters. He still has winning juice for a tournament.

DJ played well his first year on the LIV tour, but he’s a guy that has been regressing and it makes sense with how power dependent he is and nearly 40. I wouldn’t expect him to age as kindly as someone like Phil, or shorter players. This newer version of him is probably more like a top 30 player but one that is still a threat.

Interesting Stories

I’m always fascinated by Todd’s game. How you could go 2 years basically without making a cut and then find it. The guy has found it again after stepping back to a more expected range.

Rory is just a model of consistency in the game over many years. Even the year he dropped to 11th, that was because he hurt his foot playing football. We should take a minute to honor that in a sport you don’t see a lot of end of year finishes this consistently high even from the elite players.