Rudy Gobert vs Walker Kessler

Back in the summer, we talked about Utah’s offseason in multiple articles. One of the main components I thought was an underrated aspect of the trade for Rudy Gobert was Walker Kessler.

This is what was said about Walker Kessler before the season…..

“Kessler isn’t Gobert, but for as a late-round flyer I think he has a lot of the same attributes and could develop into a similar type of defensive stalwart. He could be a poor man’s Rudy Gobert as well in my opinion at 21 years old. I think he is one of the steals of last year’s draft. He’s 7-1, with a 31.4 PER and one of the highest block rates to come out of college ever. 10 blocks per 100 possessions. I’m not making that up or exaggerating it. The number is actually 10.0 which I’ve never seen before even as someone that has looked at 1000’s of per 100’s. It fueled and 83 defensive ratings.

He had the recruiting pedigree as well as the measurable too. 7.425 wingspan, and a 9-5″ standing reach. I don’t even really care about the height, it’s the standing reach that really matters, and Kessler had an elite standing reach. It’s almost as elite as Gobert’s was at 9-7″ at the combine. He has the tools to anchor an incredible defense and clean up for Sexton in the same way as Gobert did. The core makeup may be similar in restarting the clock with a 21 year old for a few million than a 31-year-old, and getting a war chest of picks too.”

Anyone that had that sort of PER in college at a P6 level usually is a pretty successful NBA player I have found. That along with the highest block rate I’ve ever seen in college or the pros cemented it for me. Let’s take a look at the aftermath. This will probably only get worse as Townes comes back and Kessler continues to play a bigger role as the season goes. (The Jazz may even need to bench him to tank).

Raw Stats Comparison

Per 100 Possessions

Advanced

Real Plus Minus

Rudy Gobert 6th and Walker Kessler 14th Ranked Centers

Conclusion

I expected exactly what Walker Kessler is doing, but I can’t say I expect Rudy Gobert to fall off a cliff this soon. I could have seen this decline in a year or two, but even with a new team and trying to figure out how to work with Karl Anthony Townes who has been out much of the year anyway, I would have still expected another solid defensive year but he is giving up a higher percentage of shots at the rim. There is no doubt who is producing more value on their contract or who I would prefer to have at this point with Kessler making 2 to 5 million dollars the next 4 years and under team control beyond that at 21 years old. Rudy Gobert is making 30 and making 38 to 46 million in the next 4 seasons. This one ancillary part of the trade alone has to make it one of the worst even forgetting all the other picks and players of value the Jazz heisted. I thought this was a bad trade even if Gobert was the same player as last season. This has the potential to be the worst modern trade ever the way this is going.