| Arizona | The departure of Oumar Ballo is a setback for Arizona, potentially hindering their performance this season. Despite the presence of Jaden Bradley, and Caleb Love, the talent gap remains unless some of the lower-minute bigs like Motiejus Krivas or Tobe Awaka can step up. I think there is a good chance they can. The competitiveness of the Big 12 and Caleb Love‘s inconsistent shooting add to their challenges however. This team seems far less talented than our rankings would suggest, but Tommy Lloyd hasn’t finished worse than 11th in KenPom since taking the job. At this point, there needs to be a floor in place until he proves there’s a reason to doubt him. However, there are no Oregon States in the Big 12 to offer a break and we do expect more losses and some slippage. |
| Arizona State | Bobby Hurley seems to value freshmen more than Dan Hurley does. Jayden Quaintance, who led a high school team with over 10 losses, is unlikely to have a significant immediate impact. Adam Miller is their best returning player and when he’s ranked in the 300’s that probably a red flag. |
| Baylor | Scott Drew enhanced Baylor’s roster with Jeremy Roach and Norchad Omier, ensuring contention. Their Final Four experience boosts an already strong squad, positioning Baylor as a top 10 team again. Drew’s skill leveraging apparent NIL interviewing for job openings and then using it recruiting. |
| BYU | BYU has talent with Fousseyni Traore and several returners, but the coaching, coming from the NBA with no college experience, is questionable. Gone is the against the grain shoot the most three’s in the nation style of play that seems to have set them appart. |
| Cincinnati | Daniel Skillings returns from a solid Big 12 season, joined by Dillon Mitchell, a solid defensive addition. This is Aziz Bandaogo team to anchor now with Viktor Lakhin moving on to Clemson. |
| Colorado | When Andrej Jakimovski or D2 and NAIA players are your best, it’s a bad sign in general. They’re not terrible players, but they shouldn’t be the core of the team. That said Tad Boyle has been at Colorado 14 years and only been ranked lower than 81st once. It’s hard to see the floor completely falling out, but this is a season if it’s going to happen it probably will. NIL may have changed the game for him, and it looks like he’s coming up short in the cash department. It’s almost like he’s trying to compete with a piggy bank instead of a checkbook. (Their worst season was only 114th) |
| Houston | Despite the key loss of Jamal Shead,, Houston’s system emphasizes rebounding, defense, and recruitment, ensuring their competitiveness. Their physicality and tenacity make them formidable, maintaining their status as a top team with the dynamic duo of Ja’Vier Francis and J’Wan Roberts.. They effectively normalize physical play and get away with more than I personally believe they should. Their identity remains intact, and I expect someone to step up in the same way Shead did last year. |
| Iowa State | Iowa State’s depth and strong defense make them formidable. Though lacking elite stars, their cohesion and defensive prowess position them as strong contenders. Additions of Dishon Jackson and Joshua Jefferson bolster the interior. If there is a question mark that is is with Milan Momcilovic as their most experienced forward. |
| Kansas | Kansas remains a powerhouse with top-tier talent and coaching. Last season fell apart due to a lack of depth, but Bill Self has addressed this issue by adding proven mid-major guards from the transfer portal. Hunter Dickinson returns for his fifth year as one of the best players in the nation, bolstering Kansas’s chances for success. |
| Kansas State | Last season’s performance did not match their initial success, and this year’s team seems closer to last year’s level. They have talent, but unfortunately, three of their best players are all centers or power forwards with Coleman Hawkins, David N’Guessan, and Achor Achor which will make it challenging to find starter minutes for each. The team appears to be less effective than the sum of their talent. I don’t buy Hawkins as a SF, but if he could steal 5 to 10 minutes a game there perhaps vs back up this team would look much better. |
| Oklahoma State | Steve Lutz has made three NCAA tournaments in three seasons at mid-major schools, but this year might break that impressive streak. With Abou Ousmane projected as the best player, let’s just say the odds aren’t exactly in their favor. |
| TCU | Dixon is a great coach, but this isn’t his best roster in recent years. The strength of the team should lie in the backcourt, where they have potential to make an impact. Frankie Collins and Noah Reynolds. It’s time for Ernest Udeh to step up, and he will have to cover a lot in the post value. |
| Texas Tech | JT Toppin was a significant addition from the portal. Grant McCasland has a strong pedigree on the defensive side of the ball, but surprisingly the offense was the better side last season. That despite one of the least efficient high usage guards in college basketball in Pop Isaacs. If there was an addition by subtraction candidate I’d say he wins that award. Losing Dave Smart is no small matter however. They’ve replaced him with a former Mountain West Conference head coach as an assistant. The roster is brimming with talent, but there are concerns about the defensive anchor at center. Federiko Federiko was a solid value addition, but he doesn’t seem as reliable as Warren Washington was. That’s something to watch even as we rated them solidly in the top 20. |
| UCF | UCF had a surprising year and returns solid continuity with Darius Johnson and Jaylin Sellers. There’s a bit of criminal history with some of the roster moves, but when you’re UCF trying to compete in the best conference in the history of college basketball, you do what you have to do I suppose. |
| Utah | Gabe Madsen led a top 25 shooting team last year, and they added his brother, also a great shooter. Ezra Ausar won’t do anything for your defense, but giving him space to work is interesting. I bet high on most ECU, Charlotte, and Rice transfers and he has some upside in a better supporting with better space. He once dropped 18 points and 19 rebounds on Houston in a conference tournament setting so the upside seems to be there. |
| West Virginia | DeVries’s success at Drake, coupled with his son Tucker DeVries joining him, bodes well for West Virginia. Javon Small has performed well in the Big 12, and Joseph Yesufu, who struggled after leaving Drake, could see a revival in his performance under DeVries’s coaching once again. Tucker DeVries is lower in our rankings than he will be by most, but the continuity coming over from Drake with his father overall should be positive. |
