
I believe the best way to try to understand this is Peak Elo Ratings. If you aren’t familiar with Elo Ratings, this is a great article explaining how they are calculated. Here are the peak Elo Ratings for the top 100 players, and the age in which they achieved them.
Peak Elo | |||
---|---|---|---|
Age | Elo | ||
1 | Novak Djokovic | 28 | 2629 |
2 | Bjorn Borg | 24 | 2622 |
3 | John McEnroe | 26 | 2583 |
4 | Rafael Nadal | 27 | 2552 |
5 | Roger Federer | 25 | 2550 |
6 | Jimmy Connors | 26 | 2521 |
7 | Ivan Lendl | 26 | 2518 |
8 | Rod Laver | 31 | 2509 |
9 | Andy Murray | 29 | 2500 |
10 | Guillermo Vilas | 25 | 2431 |
11 | Boris Becker | 21 | 2419 |
12 | Pete Sampras | 22 | 2407 |
13 | Ken Rosewall | 33 | 2388 |
14 | Stan Smith | 26 | 2381 |
15 | Andre Agassi | 25 | 2376 |
16 | Mats Wilander | 24 | 2371 |
17 | Stefan Edberg | 24 | 2370 |
18 | Ilie Nastase | 30 | 2363 |
19 | Tony Roche | 23 | 2355 |
20 | Arthur Ashe | 32 | 2354 |
21 | David Ferrer | 30 | 2348 |
22 | Vitas Gerulaitis | 24 | 2335 |
23 | Juan Martin Del Potro | 20 | 2331 |
24 | Jim Courier | 21 | 2330 |
25 | John Newcombe | 27 | 2327 |
26 | Brian Gottfried | 25 | 2324 |
27 | Tom Okker | 30 | 2317 |
28 | Daniil Medvedev | 25 | 2316 |
29 | Gene Mayer | 24 | 2303 |
30 | Alexander Zverev | 24 | 2303 |
31 | Jose Luis Clerc | 22 | 2297 |
32 | Kei Nishikori | 26 | 2296 |
33 | Lleyton Hewitt | 21 | 2295 |
34 | Nikolay Davydenko | 28 | 2291 |
35 | Stan Wawrinka | 29 | 2291 |
36 | Manuel Orantes | 26 | 2290 |
37 | Thomas Muster | 28 | 2287 |
38 | Eddie Dibbs | 27 | 2282 |
39 | Gustavo Kuerten | 24 | 2281 |
40 | Andy Roddick | 21 | 2274 |
41 | Michael Stich | 25 | 2272 |
42 | Robin Soderling | 26 | 2271 |
43 | Milos Raonic | 25 | 2269 |
44 | Yannick Noah | 23 | 2268 |
45 | Michael Chang | 24 | 2267 |
46 | Tomas Berdych | 29 | 2263 |
47 | Andres Gimeno | 31 | 2261 |
48 | Roscoe Tanner | 27 | 2261 |
49 | Stefanos Tsitsipas | 22 | 2258 |
50 | Miloslav Mecir | 23 | 2257 |
51 | Harold Solomon | 27 | 2256 |
52 | Patrick Rafter | 25 | 2255 |
53 | Dominic Thiem | 27 | 2250 |
54 | Raul Ramirez | 23 | 2249 |
55 | Goran Ivanisevic | 21 | 2246 |
56 | Jo Wilfried Tsonga | 26 | 2244 |
57 | Dennis Ralston | 25 | 2242 |
58 | Joakim Nystrom | 23 | 2242 |
59 | Adriano Panatta | 25 | 2241 |
60 | Marcelo Rios | 22 | 2241 |
61 | Sergi Bruguera | 23 | 2232 |
62 | Marin Cilic | 25 | 2232 |
63 | Guillermo Coria | 22 | 2229 |
64 | Cliff Drysdale | 30 | 2227 |
65 | Andrey Rublev | 23 | 2227 |
66 | Earl Butch Buchholz | 27 | 2226 |
67 | Roy Emerson | 31 | 2225 |
68 | Juan Carlos Ferrero | 23 | 2225 |
69 | Carlos Alcaraz Garfia | 19 | 2225 |
70 | Marty Riessen | 30 | 2223 |
71 | Andres Gomez | 25 | 2223 |
72 | Petr Korda | 30 | 2222 |
73 | Marat Safin | 25 | 2218 |
74 | Pat Cash | 22 | 2217 |
75 | Yevgeny Kafelnikov | 25 | 2216 |
76 | Richard Krajicek | 27 | 2214 |
77 | Kent Carlsson | 20 | 2213 |
78 | Cliff Richey | 23 | 2212 |
79 | Dick Stockton | 26 | 2212 |
80 | Jose Higueras | 26 | 2210 |
81 | Brad Gilbert | 28 | 2210 |
82 | Fernando Gonzalez | 26 | 2209 |
83 | Alex Metreveli | 29 | 2208 |
84 | Ivan Ljubicic | 27 | 2206 |
85 | Fernando Verdasco | 26 | 2204 |
86 | Richard Pancho Gonzales | 42 | 2203 |
87 | Grigor Dimitrov | 26 | 2203 |
88 | Eliot Teltscher | 22 | 2200 |
89 | Jan Kodes | 27 | 2197 |
90 | David Nalbandian | 28 | 2196 |
91 | Richard Gasquet | 29 | 2196 |
92 | Carlos Moya | 27 | 2190 |
93 | Tommy Haas | 23 | 2189 |
94 | Gael Monfils | 30 | 2189 |
95 | Magnus Larsson | 25 | 2188 |
96 | Todd Martin | 28 | 2188 |
97 | Henri Leconte | 23 | 2187 |
98 | Jakob Hlasek | 24 | 2184 |
99 | Anders Jarryd | 24 | 2182 |
100 | Alex Corretja | 26 | 2182 |
There are a few outliers I think that we need to remove in the mix here.
8 | Rod Laver | 31 | 2509 |
47 | Andres Gimeno | 31 | 2261 |
67 | Roy Emerson | 31 | 2225 |
20 | Arthur Ashe | 32 | 2354 |
13 | Ken Rosewall | 33 | 2388 |
86 | Richard Pancho Gonzales | 42 | 2203 |
These were all players that didn’t have the benefit of playing in the Open Era until they were in their 30’s. I don’t think we can include them when there is no record of how good they were in their 20’s. Likely better players had the system been in place to allow them to compete like they did in the Open Era.
For a very different reason, Carlos Alcaraz needs to come off the list as well. He has many more years ahead of him and will likely post many higher Ratings than he has.
69 | Carlos Alcaraz Garfia | 19 | 2225 |
While it is certainly possible, these players have peaked, especially Thiem coming off of injury. I do believe it’s too soon to count any of them as having ultimately peaked just yet.
65 | Andrey Rublev | 23 | 2227 |
49 | Stefanos Tsitsipas | 22 | 2258 |
30 | Alexander Zverev | 24 | 2303 |
28 | Daniil Medvedev | 25 | 2316 |
53 | Dominic Thiem | 27 | 2250 |
Removing those 12 from the All Time Top 100, the average peak age of the remaining is
25.34 Years Old
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