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Big 12 Basketball Preview 2023-24

2023-2024 Big 12 Basketball Predictions & Preview

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Our model, ADJeff ratings, are just a rating of the D1 players and their Adjust Efficiency by strength of schedule. There are other factors we consider in the overall team rankings like coaching, continuity, incoming freshmen, JUCO, team build, fit, etc.

Team
ADJeff		2023
NET
1Kansas5.49
2Houston3.91
3TCU3.828
4Texas4.07
5Baylor3.415
6Kansas State3.424
7Texas Tech3.563
8Cincinnati3.570
9Iowa State3.020
10BYU3.385
11West Virginia3.325
12UCF2.871
13Oklahoma2.768
14Oklahoma St2.243

The Top 40 Big 12 Players by Adjusted Efficiency

Nat
Rank		PERADJeff
2Hunter DickinsonKansas29.26.2
6Jesse EdwardsWest Virgina28.25.5
15Jalen BridgesBaylor20.74.7
24Fousseyni TraoreBYU25.94.5
26KJ AdamsKansas18.84.5
36J’Wan RobertsHouston27.04.3
42JaKobe ColesTCU25.24.3
43Kadin ShedrickTexas24.94.3
44Dylan DisuTexas23.74.3
46Kevin McCullarKansas17.44.2
55Viktor LakhinCincinnati26.64.1
69Warren WashingtonTexas Tech19.13.9
70Dajuan HarrisKansas16.13.9
70Nae’Qwan TomlinKansas State18.43.9
72Emanuel MillerTCU18.13.8
82LJ CryerHouston16.43.7
86Devion HarmonTexas Tech183.7
100Tylor PerryKansas State24.53.6
105Tamin LipseyIowa State16.13.5
121Max Abmas*Texas27.23.3
125Jamal SheadHouston17.53.3
139Aziz BandaogoCincinnati243.3
140CJ KellyUCF19.23.3
142Arthur KalumaKansas State15.13.3
144Avery Anderson IIITCU14.73.2
147RayJ DennisBaylor26.63.1
161Keshon GilbertIowa State17.73.1
162Jaykwon WaltonUCF19.23.1
167Joe ToussaintTexas Tech163.0
188Darrion WilliamsTexas Tech16.12.9
196Damian DunnHouston16.22.8
200Simas LukosiusCincinnati14.32.9
214Primo SpearsCincinnati14.32.8
224John Hugley*Oklahoma21.12.8
232Aly KhalifaBYU23.22.7
233Jameer Nelson Jr.TCU25.32.6
234Tyrese HunterTexas11.72.6
238Arterio MorrisKansas14.82.6
255Le’tre DarthardOklahoma18.52.6
279Ques GloverKansas State23.52.6

Kansas (28-8, #9 NET)

Kansas lost their 3 leading scorers and just reloaded in the transfer portal landing Hunter Dickinson who was the 2nd best player in the nation in our model. He’s the best transfer that has ever hit the portal in our rankings. Kansas has the most talented team in the nation, continuity will be some questions about adding a player like Dickinson, but he seems like a perfect fit. Bill Self healthy is really the only question mark at this point after not coaching in the tournaments. After the transfer haul, this team is stacked again on talent in a tier I believe with Purdue as the top 2 teams. I think Kansas has the most talent, but Purdue has continuity. We’ve seen them do it, but this talent is overwhelming.

Hunter DickinsonSr7-1
KJ Adams Jr.Jr6-7
Dajuan Harris Jr.Sr6-1
Kevin McCullar Jr.Sr6-6
Nicolas TimberlakeSr6-4
Elmarko JacksonFr6-3
Arterio MorrisSo6-3
Parker BraunSr6-10
Zach ClemenceJr6-10
Jamari McDowellFr6-4
KJ Adams6-710.6 Pts, 4.3 Reb, 1.9 Ast
Kevin McCullar6-610.7 Pts, 7.0 Reb, 2.4 Ast
Dajuan Harris6-18.9 Pts, 2.5 Reb, 6.2 Ast
Ernest Udeh6-112.6 Pts, 1.8 Reb, 0.3 Ast
Zuby Ejiofor6-91.2 Pts, 1.7 Reb, 0.2 Ast
Top 250PERADJeff
2Hunter DickinsonKansas29.196.2
26KJ AdamsKansas18.84.5
46Kevin McCullarKansas17.44.2
70Dajuan HarrisKansas16.13.9
238Arterio MorrisKansas14.82.6

Transfers

TransfersPERADJeff
1Hunter Dickinson7’1Michigan28.46.2
115Arterio Morris6’3Texas14.82.6
247Nicolas Timberlake6’4Towson19.51.8

Class of 2023

25Elmarko Jackson6’3Kansas
30Chris Johnson6’6Kansas
81Jamari McDowell6’5Kansas

Houston (33-4, #1 NET)

Marcus Sasser and Jarace Walker remained in the NBA draft. I think you have to trust the system Sampson has and it almost feels plug-and-play at this point. Houston was still a top level team two years ago when they lost Sasser to injury. J’Wan Roberts, and Jamal Shead return, and Sampson has added big time talent through the portal. They also have a nice incoming high school class as well. They shouldn?t miss a beat in the Big 12. Tramon Mark hit the portal but that’s not a huge loss either in our opinion. The hair on fire rebounding and defense here will be back with Roberts and the players they target to fit it. They picked up LJ Cryer and Damian Dunn and are having one of the best portal seasons.

LJ CryerSr6-1
Jamal SheadSr6-1
J’Wan RobertsSr6-7
Ja’Vier FrancisJr6-8
Damian DunnJr6-5
Terrance ArceneauxSo6-5
Joseph TuglerFr6-7
Ramon Walker Jr.Jr6-4
Emanuel SharpSo6-3
Jacob McFarlandFr6-10
Jamal Shead6-110.5 Pts, 3.0 Reb, 5.4 Ast
J’Wan Roberts6-710.0 Pts, 7.7 Reb, 1.2 Ast
Emanuel Sharp6-35.9 Pts, 2.2 Reb, 0.5 Ast
Ja’Vier Francis6-84.3 Pts, 3.5 Reb, 0.2 Ast
Terrance Arceneaux6-53.7 Pts, 2.5 Reb, 0.6 Ast
Top 250PERADJeff
36J’Wan RobertsHouston26.954.3
82LJ CryerHouston16.43.7
125Jamal SheadHouston17.53.3
196Damian DunnHouston16.22.8

Transfers

TransfersPERADJeff
17LJ Cryer6’1Baylor16.43.7
72Damian Dunn6’5Temple16.22.8

Class of 2023

76Joesph Tugler6?8?Houston
99Kordelius Jefferson6?4?Houston
101Jacob McFarland6?10?Houston

TCU (22-13, #28 NET)

Mike Miles is gone but JaKobe Coles is returning and will keep them in solid shape. They have also landed some quality players in the portal already

Chuck O’Bannon Jr.Sr6-6
Emanuel MillerSr6-7
JaKobe ColesJr6-7
Avery Anderson IIISr6-3
Jameer Nelson Jr.Sr6-1
Micah PeavySr6-7
Ernest Udeh Jr.So6-11
Xavier CorkSr6-9
Essam MostafaSr6-9
Trevian TennysonSr6-4
Emanuel Miller6-712.3 Pts, 6.5 Reb, 1.7 Ast
Damion Baugh6-312.6 Pts, 4.7 Reb, 5.8 Ast
JaKobe Coles6-78.6 Pts, 4.0 Reb, 1.2 Ast
Micah Peavy6-77.0 Pts, 3.1 Reb, 1.2 Ast
Xavier Cork6-94.4 Pts, 2.6 Reb, 0.4 Ast
Top 250PERADJeff
42JaKobe ColesTCU25.184.3
72Emanuel MillerTCU18.13.8
139Avery Anderson IIITCU14.73.2
233Jameer Nelson Jr.TCU25.32.6

Transfers

38Avery Anderson III6’3Okl St14.73.2
123Jameer Nelson Jr.6’1Delaware25.32.5
161Essam Mostafa6’9CCU22.82.3
406Trey Tennyson6’4Tex A&M CC170.9

Class of 2023

53Jace Posey6?4?TCU
138Isaiah Manning6?8?TCU

Texas (29-9, #7 NET)

The Longhorns lose almost everyone but do bring in a couple of top prospects. There is some talent on this roster but I’m not a very big believer in Rodney Terry as a coach. Last years Longhorn team was 12-1 when he took over and already rolling as one of the most experienced teams in the nation. I think there is probably a difference in not screwing it up and being value-additive. He was around a.500 coach in 10 years in the MWC and CUSA. Ronald Holland also decommitted.

Max AbmasSr6-0
Tyrese HunterJr6-0
Dillon MitchellSo6-8
Dylan DisuSr6-9
Brock CunninghamSr6-6
Ithiel HortonSr6-5
Kadin ShedrickSr6-11
Chris JohnsonFr6-4
Chendall WeaverSo6-3
Alex AnamekweSo6-5
Top 250
43Kadin ShedrickTexas24.94.3
44Dylan DisuTexas23.74.3
121Max Abmas*Texas27.23.3
233Tyrese HunterTexas11.72.6

Transfers

7Kadin Shedrick6’11Virginia24.94.3
31Max Abmas*6’1Oral Roberts27.23.3
188Chendall Weaver6’3UTA15.42.2
219Ze’Rik Onyema6’8UTEP15.42.1

Class of 2023

31AJ Johnson6?5?Texas

Baylor (23-11, #15 NET)

LJ Cryer has hit the portal and Adam Flagler will remain in the NBA Draft. Jalen Bridges will return and incoming freshmen Miro Little and Ja’Kobe Walter should help. As expected Baylor hit the portal hard as like always adding Rayj Dennis and Jayden Nunn as Cryer / Flagler replacements. The model doesn’t really like RayJ Dennis as much as most will nationally, but Scott Drew is one of the best coaches in the nation and has proven he can get a lot out of these mid-major transfers like Flagler and MaCio Teague. It just feels like this season will be a worse one than the 13th average NET they have maintained the last 5 years.

Jalen BridgesSr6-7
Rayj DennisSr6-2
Langston LoveSo6-5
Ja’Kobe WalterFr6-5
Yves MissiFr6-10
Jayden NunnJr6-4
Jonathan Tchamwa TchatchouaSr6-8
Miro LittleFr6-4
Caleb LohnerSr6-8
Josh OjianwunaSo6-10
Jalen Bridges6-722010.3 Pts, 5.6 Reb, 1.0 Ast
Langston Love6-52106.3 Pts, 2.2 Reb, 0.8 Ast
Josh Ojianwuna6-102304.2 Pts, 3.5 Reb, 0.2 Ast
Caleb Lohner6-82303.2 Pts, 3.5 Reb, 0.3 Ast
Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua6-82455.1 Pts, 4.8 Reb, 0.5 Ast
Top 250PERADJeff
15Jalen BridgesBaylor20.74.7
147Rayj DennisBaylor26.63.1

Transfers

TransfersPERADJeff
50RayJ Dennis6’2Toledo26.63.1
221Jayden Nunn6’4VCU14.22.0

Class of 2023

14JaKobe Walter6?5?Baylor
36Miro Little6?4Baylor

Kansas State

Jerome Tang seems to be a master of waiting out the portal and making late adds of key player. He’s added enough through the portal again to be a threat. Probably not as strong as last season but they are a team to watch.

Tylor PerrySr5-11
Nae’Qwan TomlinSr6-10
Ques GloverSr6-1
Arthur KalumaJr6-7
David N’GuessanSr6-9
Dai Dai AmesFr6-1
Cam CarterJr6-3
RJ JonesFr6-3
Macaleab RichFr6-6
Taj ManningFr6-6
Dorian FinisterSo6-5
70Nae’Qwan TomlinKansas State18.43.9
100Tylor PerryKansas State24.53.6
147Arthur KalumaKansas State15.13.3
265David N’GuessanKansas State17.42.6
289Ques GloverKansas State23.52.6

Cincinnati

Viktor Lakhin and Aziz Bandaogo are two of the best centers no one really knows. I doubt either have much issue translating to the Big 12. Especially Lakhin from a solid AAC. It’s a bit embarrassment of riches at one position. We were also hoping to see more minutes from Lakhin. Maybe they will try to play them together some, but I’m skeptical of that.

Viktor LakhinJr6-11
Primo SpearsSo6-2
Aziz BandaogoJr7-0
Simas LukosiusJr6-6
Ody OguamaSr6-9
Daveon ThomasJr6-2
CJ FredrickSr6-3
Jamille ReynoldsJr6-10
Daniel SkillingsSo6-6
Jizzle JamesFr6-1
Rayvon GriffithFr6-5
Top 250
55Viktor LakhinCincinnati26.614.1
138Aziz BandaogoCincinnati24.03.3
200Simas LukosiusCincinnati14.32.9
214Primo SpearsCincinnati14.32.8

Texas Tech

New coach fresh off an NIT championship should make a run at the NCAA’s with his new team. Warren Washington will be key to the defense. They also added a strong back up in Dishon Jackson after Charlotte lost their coach and Joe Toussaint after West Virginia replaced Huggins.

Pop IsaacsSo6-2
Joe ToussaintSr6-0
Warren WashingtonSr7-0
Devan CambridgeSr6-6
Darrion WilliamsSo6-6
Lamar WashingtonSo6-4
Dishon JacksonSr6-10
Chance McMillianJr6-3
KyeRon LindsaySo6-7
Kerwin WaltonSr6-5
Richard IsaacsFr6-2
69Warren WashingtonTexas Tech19.13.9
92Devion HarmonTexas Tech183.7
216Darrion WilliamsTexas Tech16.12.9
281Dishon JacksonTexas Tech17.82.7

BYU

Losing Ques Glover is a tough blow, especially stepping up in conference. Fousseyni Traore is a legit big time player, but you always wonder how a 6-6 guy playing in the post will preform stepping up. We think he will still be awesome, especially as strong as the WCC is, but there is always a small question. The Big 12 is the best conference in America and every team has great centers it seems.

Fousseyni TraoreJr6-6
Dawson BakerSr6-4
Spencer JohnsonSr6-5
Aly KhalifaJr6-11
Jaxson RobinsonJr6-7
Dallin HallSo6-4
Trevin KnellSr6-5
Collin ChandlerFr6-4
Noah WatermanSr6-11
Richie SaundersSo6-5
Top 250
24Fousseyni TraoreBYU25.864.5
233Aly KhalifaBYU23.22.7

Iowa State

The Cyclones are another program that graduates everyone. A nice recruiting class should help.

Omaha BiliewFr6-83.1
Tamin LipseySo6-12.6
Curtis JonesJr6-52.3
Jackson PaveletzkeSo6-32
Keshon GilbertJr6-41.9
Milan MomcilovicFr6-81.7
Tre KingSr6-71.2
Robert JonesSr6-101
JT RockFr7-10.4
Demarion WatsonSo6-60.1
Top 250
105Tamin LipseyIowa State16.13.5
161Keshon GilbertIowa State17.73.0

Transfers

51Keshon Gilbert6’4UNLV17.73.0
140Curtis Jones6’5Buffalo18.92.4
176Jackson Paveletzke6’3Wofford19.92.2

West Virginia (19-15 #25 NET)

We had West Virginia ranked 18th in the country before Bob Huggins wrecked his car and the program. Landing Jesse Edwards was a massive get, but this team is a shell of what it could be. Add in the fact the interim coach has been an assistant coach for just a short time I don’t have much faith in this team now.

Jesse EdwardsSr6-11
Kerr KriisaSr6-3
RaeQuan BattleSr6-5
Seth WilsonJr6-1
Josiah HarrisSo6-7
Jeremiah BembryFr6-6
Kobe JohnsonJr6-3
Patrick SuemnickJr6-8
Tre Mitchell6-911.7 Pts, 5.5 Reb, 1.8 Ast
Joe Toussaint6-09.4 Pts, 2.8 Reb, 2.6 Ast
Seth Wilson6-14.2 Pts, 0.9 Reb, 0.5 Ast
Top 250PERADJeff
6Jesse EdwardsWest Virgina28.165.5

Transfers

2Jesse Edwards6’11Syracuse27.55.5
160Raequan Battle6’5Montana St21.52.3
175Kerr Kriisa6’3Arizona10.82.2
249Jose Perez6’5Manhattan19.91.8

Oklahoma

John Hugley IV is capable of being a lot better than he was last year, but you worry about his defense. Pitt was not very good when he was their best player. I think this team takes a step back overall.

Milos UzanSo6-4
Le’Tre DarthardSr6-4
John Hugley IVSr6-9
Javian McCollumJr6-2
Rivaldo SoaresSr6-6
Sam GodwinSr6-10
Kaden CooperFr6-5
Otega OwehSo6-5
Jalon MooreJr6-7
Jacolb ColeFr6-7
224John Hugley*Oklahoma21.12.8
255Le’tre DarthardOklahoma18.52.6
285Milos UzanOklahoma10.62.5
388Rivaldo SoaresOklahoma10.12.0

UCF

UCF has been a solid program under Johnny Dawkins for a while now. Most seem to think UCF will be the whipping boy of the Big 12 but I could see UCF holding their own most years even if they are near the bottom. This doesn’t really seem like that year though, and there aren’t many Tacko Fall’s that haver ever played at 7-6 and with what he could do on defense when they had their greatest success.

C.J. WalkerSr6-8
Darius JohnsonJr6-1
Jaylin SellersJr6-4
Ibrahima DialloSr7-0
Shemarri AllenSr6-4
DeMarr Langford Jr.Sr6-5
Thierno SyllaSo6-11
Comeh EmuoborFr6-5
Tyler HendricksFr6-4
Marchelus AveryJr6-8
138CJ KellyUCF19.23.3
265Darius JohnsonUCF14.62.5

Oklahoma State

Losing Kalib Boone and Moussa Cisse is a massive blow to a team that was only an NIT team last year. Those two players individually are two of the best big men in the nation in our opinion. The problem arises when they only play 21 or 22 minutes a game. Boone was third team All Big 12 and played 21.3 minutes a game. How can you blame them for leaving if they are playing back up minutes. You have to find a way to keep them on the court and happy, or at least one of them if you want any of them to stay. Now they go from probably the two of the best post players in the nation to none. Maybe a freshman.

They will be leaning on mid major guards in the best conference in the nation to carry this entire team. While Javon Small seems like a strong add on paper from East Carolina averaging 15.8 Pts, 4.8 Reb, 5.6 Ast at an AAC team you have to dig deeper. This isn’t like adding Tristen Newton at UConn. Small was hurt 5 games into AAC play and put most of those numbers up vs the 340th NET SOS OOC. In AAC play his PER dropped to 11.9 and a .418 True shooting. He didn’t play much on a pretty bad ECU team the season prior either and overall. .404% true shooting in 308 minutes in AAC play in his career. Welcome to the Big 12 I guess, go lead us.

Bryce ThompsonSr6-6
John-Michael WrightSr6-1
Javon SmallJr6-2
Russell HarrisonSr6-7
Jarius HicklenSr6-3
Brandon GarrisonFr6-9
Eric DaileyFr6-7
Quion WilliamsSo6-4
Justin McBrideFr6-7
Jamyron KellerFr6-1
316John-Michael WrightOklahoma St10.42.3
335Javon SmallOklahoma St192.2
376Bryce ThompsonOklahoma St9.22.1

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