Our model, ADJeff ratings, are just a rating of the D1 players and their Adjust Efficiency by strength of schedule.There are other factors we consider in the overall team rankings like coaching, continuity, incoming freshmen, JUCO, team build, fit, etc.
Duke will have Jeremy Roach and Tyrese Proctor back. Kyle Filipowski is surprisingly heading back. They have the 2nd best high school class coming in as well. I am skeptical of depending on freshmen so heavily again in the era of covid super seniors. That played out more or less as expected last season as it’s a little bit of a disappointing season by Duke standards.
Jon Scheyer isn?t Coach K nor should anyone expect him to be at this point. They will be super talented again, but there still is a learning curve happening with younger players. He’s probably going to be a little better as a coach but getting young guys no matter how talented up to speed might still be a hard ask when college basketball continues to be so old with covid extra years.
I would have expected a similar type 10-15 seasons to last unless they get some major transfers instead of the absolute 1-5 one other may. That’s what the model suggest as well. I do expect Sean Stewart at 6-8, 230 to be more ready than most as freshman from day one. From a pure talent and potential aspect, I get it, I still think the coaching and experience might keep them down some.
Miami will only have one notable player that is a senior and that has used all five seasons in Jordan Miller. Nijel Pack and Norchad Omier will return and we know from Pack’s 2-year 800k NIL deal being reported they have deep-pocketed supporters. The bigger question is Jim Larranaga. He’s 73 years old, but with this team, I think he’s probably going to come back if they will. The NET was a little low this past season, but that was more the SOS and the slow start by Nijel Pack. The last 23 games he shot 43% from three and averaged 15ppg. They are playing more like the team we expected to close the season. They did take a hit on depth transferring out losing Walker but they scored big landing FSU transfer Matthew Cleveland as the big wing they are missing.
UNC had the 65th-highest three-point shooting percentage in 2021-22. Last year it dropped to 329th. Caleb Love has hit the portal and that’s not the worst thing to me considering he had a true shooting percentage under .500%. He’s one of the only players in the nation that has ever shot 7+ three’s a game while shooting under .300%. He was the majority of the reason for the terrible outside shooting. They have already improved that shooting by adding Paxon Wojick.
I fully expect the NBA 2nd all-time leading three-point percentage player Hubert Davis to target multiple other 3 point shooters with the spots he is opening in the portal. Building a team like that around Armando Bacot who is already confirmed back supposedly using his covid 5th year. I think if you put shooters around him and RJ Davis they are back in the national conversation. Nexus top 10 recruit, Simeon Wilcher has decommitted.
Brad Brownell is a coach we’ve had on the hot seat, but this team seems strong enough to make the NCAA. That should be enough although if they miss the dance again some may still be ready to move on now that there is some expectation.
Reece Beekman returns but this Virginia team will likely take a step back. Tony Bennett will need to learn to navigate the portal age better. He’s landing some pretty good transfers but the turnover of the roster seems to be at the expense of the system that relies on continuity.
Jeff Capel was on the hot seat before last season. As one of the higher paid coaches in the nation the fans of Pitt may want to see a little more. I’m not sure this team has more upside than last season.
Quinten Post is one of the best players no one talks about. Boston College was 16-17 (9-11) in the ACC last year with Post only playing 19 games on the season. but do lose their leading scorer Makai Ashton-Langford (12.4ppg, 16.3 PER). His production is likely replaceable though. With Post on the court more I like this team to be better overall. The numbers he put up with out any games vs cupcake OOC games make his numbers more impressive.
You always hate to see a hall of fame coach go out like he did. Now Syracuse has new leadership for the first time since the early 70’s. Judah Mintz is very good but I wouldn’t expect much from this team.
Damon Stoudamire was a pretty solid hire. He has the name recognition and did a pretty solid job at Pacific, a place that doesn’t win a lot. By year 4 there he was 23-10 (11-1) and 3rd in the WCC before taking a job with the Boston Celtics. Those NBA ties should help as well. The roster doesn’t have a lot of talent that pops this season though.
Leonard Hamilton we believe is very much on the hot seat after going 9-23 (7-13) last season and 17-14(10-10) the season prior. At 75 years old you have to think he wants to have one strong season and retire on a high note after having a such a great career. I don’t think this team has the talent to do much unfortunately.
Micah Shrewsberry was a solid hire but this roster is one of the least talented in the P5. It will be tough to do much nationally. Staying out of the basement in the ACC would probalby be an accomplishment.
I think the bridges are already burnt with Kenny Payne. This roster is better overall this season, but you can’t have a season like they did (4-28, #315 NET) in any power conference, much less one of the highest funded programs in the nation and recover. I don’t believe the fans will ever forgive that unless you are in the Final Four or winning it all very soon. This team is miles from that and Payne seems to do less with more. I don’t believe he’s long for this job. Payne built a team with essentially one guard last season, which is coaching malpractice. You can always compete with undersized players playing up. You will stink if you don’t have guys that can even get the ball up the court or get you into offense effectively. I bet they wish they had Chris Mack back now.