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ACC Basketball Preview 2023-24

2023-2024 ACC Basketball Predictions & Preview

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Our model, ADJeff ratings, are just a rating of the D1 players and their Adjust Efficiency by strength of schedule. There are other factors we consider in the overall team rankings like coaching, continuity, incoming freshmen, JUCO, team build, fit, etc.

3N. Carolina4.246
5NC State3.345
7Wake Forest3.090
8Virginia Tech2.776
10Boston College2.6168
12Florida State2.5221
13Georgia Tech2.2179
14Notre Dame1.9186

The Top ACC Players by Adjusted Efficiency

7Armando BacotUNC27.45.3
11Norchad OmierMiami27.44.9
20Kyle FilipowskiDuke24.74.6
41PJ HallClemson27.94.3
57Ryan YoungDuke24.54.1
73RJ DavisUNC18,93.8
81Quinten PostBoston College25.33.8
103Jack ClarkClemson20.63.6
121Damari MonsantoWake Forest20.13.5
127Reece BeekmanVirginia18.23.4
137Joseph GirardClemson16.93.2
140Harrison IngramUNC16.73.2
156Judah MintzSyracuse19.83.2
166Federiko FederikoPitt193.2
170Nijel PackMiami16.73.1
171Blake HinsonPitt18.13.1
179Mark MitchellDuke15.93.1
181Matthew ClevelandMiami16.13.0
206Jae’lyn Withers*UNC222.8
228Jeremy RoachDuke14.42.8
232Primo SpearsFlorida State14.32.8
243Cameron HildrethWake Forest16.22.8
244Andrew CarrWake Forest16.12.8
248Sean PedullaVirginia Tech16.22.8
271Robbie BeranVirginia Tech13.52.7
273Cormac RyanUNC16.22.7
298Hunter CattoorVirginia Tech14.92.6
308Dante HarrisVirginia12.72.5
319Tyrese ProctorDuke12.82.5
328Jamir WatkinsFlorida State18.12.4
330Miles KellyGeorgia Tech14.42.4
339Jacob GrovesVirginia12.42.4
345Jaeden ZackeryBoston College13.42.4
345Darin Green Jr.Florida State12.92.4
363Julian Roper IINotre Dame10.32.3

Duke (27-9, #16)

Duke will have Jeremy Roach and Tyrese Proctor back. Kyle Filipowski is surprisingly heading back. They have the 2nd best high school class coming in as well. I am skeptical of depending on freshmen so heavily again in the era of covid super seniors. That played out more or less as expected last season as it’s a little bit of a disappointing season by Duke standards.

Jon Scheyer isn?t Coach K nor should anyone expect him to be at this point. They will be super talented again, but there still is a learning curve happening with younger players. He’s probably going to be a little better as a coach but getting young guys no matter how talented up to speed might still be a hard ask when college basketball continues to be so old with covid extra years.

I would have expected a similar type 10-15 seasons to last unless they get some major transfers instead of the absolute 1-5 one other may. That’s what the model suggest as well. I do expect Sean Stewart at 6-8, 230 to be more ready than most as freshman from day one. From a pure talent and potential aspect, I get it, I still think the coaching and experience might keep them down some.

Kyle FilipowskiSo6-11
Jeremy RoachSr6-2
Tyrese ProctorSo6-5
Mark MitchellSo6-8
Ryan YoungSr6-10
Jared McCainFr6-2
Sean StewartFr6-8
Caleb FosterFr6-5
TJ PowerFr6-9
Jaden SchuttSo6-4
Kyle Filipowski7-015.1 Pts, 9.0 Reb, 1.6 Ast
Jeremy Roach6-113.6 Pts, 2.5 Reb, 3.1 Ast
Tyrese Proctor6-59.4 Pts, 3.1 Reb, 3.3 Ast
Mark Mitchell6-89.1 Pts, 4.5 Reb, 1.2 Ast
Ryan Young6-106.4 Pts, 5.5 Reb, 1.3 Ast
Jacob Grandison6-64.4 Pts, 2.0 Reb, 1.3 Ast
Jaylen Blakes6-13.3 Pts, 1.5 Reb, 1.3 As
Top 250
18Kyle FilipowskiDuke24.714.6
56Ryan YoungDuke24.564.1
165Mark MitchellDuke15.93.1
203Jeremy RoachDuke14.42.8

Class of 2023

4Sean Stewart6’8Duke
8Caleb Foster6’4Duke
26Jared McCain6’3Duke
32TJ Power6’8Duke

Miami (29-7, #35 NET)

Miami will only have one notable player that is a senior and that has used all five seasons in Jordan Miller. Nijel Pack and Norchad Omier will return and we know from Pack’s 2-year 800k NIL deal being reported they have deep-pocketed supporters. The bigger question is Jim Larranaga. He’s 73 years old, but with this team, I think he’s probably going to come back if they will. The NET was a little low this past season, but that was more the SOS and the slow start by Nijel Pack. The last 23 games he shot 43% from three and averaged 15ppg. They are playing more like the team we expected to close the season. They did take a hit on depth transferring out losing Walker but they scored big landing FSU transfer Matthew Cleveland as the big wing they are missing.

Norchad OmierJr6-7
Nijel PackJr6-0
Matthew ClevelandJr6-7
Wooga PoplarJr6-5
Bensley JosephJr6-2
Jakai RobinsonSo6-5
AJ CaseySo6-9
Michael NwokoFr6-9
Christian WatsonSo6-7
Kyshawn GeorgeFr6-6
Norchad Omier6-713.1 Pts, 10.0 Reb, 1.3 Ast
Nijel Pack6-013.6 Pts, 2.7 Reb, 2.3 Ast
Wooga Poplar6-58.4 Pts, 3.3 Reb, 1.5 Ast
Bensley Joseph6-15.3 Pts, 2.1 Reb, 2.0 Ast
11Norchad OmierMiami27.434.9
80Nijel PackMiami16.73.1
163Matthew ClevelandMiami16.13.0
52Matthew Cleveland6’7Florida St16.13.0

Class of 2023

136Michael Nwoko6’10Miami

North Carolina (20-13, #46 NET)

UNC had the 65th-highest three-point shooting percentage in 2021-22. Last year it dropped to 329th. Caleb Love has hit the portal and that’s not the worst thing to me considering he had a true shooting percentage under .500%. He’s one of the only players in the nation that has ever shot 7+ three’s a game while shooting under .300%. He was the majority of the reason for the terrible outside shooting. They have already improved that shooting by adding Paxon Wojick.

I fully expect the NBA 2nd all-time leading three-point percentage player Hubert Davis to target multiple other 3 point shooters with the spots he is opening in the portal. Building a team like that around Armando Bacot who is already confirmed back supposedly using his covid 5th year. I think if you put shooters around him and RJ Davis they are back in the national conversation. Nexus top 10 recruit, Simeon Wilcher has decommitted.

Armando BacotSr6-11
RJ DavisSr6-0
Harrison IngramJr6-7
Cormac RyanSr6-5
Elliot CadeauFr6-1
Paxson WojcikSr6-5
Jalen WashingtonSo6-10
Jae’Lyn WithersSr6-9
Zayden HighFr6-9
Seth TrimbleSo6-3
RJ Davis6-016.1 Pts, 5.1 Reb, 3.2 Ast
Armando Bacot6-1015.9 Pts, 10.4 Reb, 1.4 Ast
D’Marco Dunn6-42.7 Pts, 0.7 Reb, 0.2 Ast
Seth Trimble6-31.8 Pts, 0.8 Reb, 0.6 Ast
Top 250PERADJeff
7Armando BacotUNC27.495.3
73RJ DavisUNC18,93.8
140Harrison IngramUNC16.73.2
206Jae’lyn Withers*UNC22.02.8
214Cormac RyanUNC16.22.7


39Harrison Ingram6’8Stanford16.73.2
80Jae’lyn Withers*6’8Louisville22.02.8
86Cormac Ryan6’5Notre Dame16.22.7
270Paxson Wojcik6’4Brown19.21.7

Class of 2023

65Zayden High6?9?North Carolina

Clemson (23-11 #60 NET)

Brad Brownell is a coach we’ve had on the hot seat, but this team seems strong enough to make the NCAA. That should be enough although if they miss the dance again some may still be ready to move on now that there is some expectation.

PJ HallSr6-10
Chase HunterSr6-3
Jack ClarkSr6-8
Joseph Girard IIISr6-1
Jake HeidbrederJr6-5
Alex HemenwaySr6-3
Ian SchieffelinJr6-7
Bas LeyteSr6-10
Josh BeadleSo6-3
Dillon HunterSo6-4
Top 250
41PJ HallClemson27.974.3
103Jack ClarkClemson20.63.6
137Joseph GirardClemson16.93.2
26Jack Clark6’8NC State20.63.6
36Joseph Girard6’1Syracuse16.93.2
125Jake Heidbreder6’5Air Force18.02.5

NC State

NC State made the NCAA tournament last season after missing a few with weaker OOC’s. If DJ Burns can stay on the court more they would have more upside.

Casey MorsellSr6-3
DJ BurnsSr6-9
DJ HorneSr6-1
Jayden TaylorJr6-4
MJ RiceSo6-5
Kam WoodsJr6-2
LJ ThomasSo6-2
Trey ParkerFr6-2
Dennis Parker Jr.Fr6-6
Ernest RossJr6-9
Top 250
71D.J. Burns Jr.NCSU23.33.9
200Casey MorsellNCSU16.62.9
176Jayden TaylorNCSU15.03.1
206DJ HorneNCSU14.52.9
684MJ RiceNCSU7.61.2

Wake Forest

Steve Forbes is a good coach that seems to do less with more typically. Last season was a little disappointing but this one could be a rebound season.

Jao ItukaSo6-1
Matthew MarshJr7-1
Cameron HildrethJr6-4
Andrew CarrSr6-10
Damari MonsantoSr6-6
Kevin MillerJr6-0
Hunter SallisJr6-5
Efton Reid IIISo6-11
Parker FriedrichsenFr6-3
Abramo CankaSo6-6
121Damari MonsantoWake Forest20.13.5
243Cameron HildrethWake Forest16.22.8
244Andrew CarrWake Forest16.12.8


Reece Beekman returns but this Virginia team will likely take a step back. Tony Bennett will need to learn to navigate the portal age better. He’s landing some pretty good transfers but the turnover of the roster seems to be at the expense of the system that relies on continuity.

Reece BeekmanSr6-3
Isaac McKneelySo6-4
Jacob GrovesSr6-9
Andrew RohdeSo6-6
Dante HarrisJr6-0
Jordan MinorSr6-8
Leon Bond IIIFr6-5
Elijah GertrudeFr6-3
Blake BuchananFr6-9
Ryan DunnSo6-8
127Reece BeekmanVirginia18.23.4
308Dante HarrisVirginia12.72.5
339Jacob GrovesVirginia12.42.4
369Jordan MinorVirginia282.2
494Andrew RohdeVirginia221.6


Jeff Capel was on the hot seat before last season. As one of the higher paid coaches in the nation the fans of Pitt may want to see a little more. I’m not sure this team has more upside than last season.

Blake HinsonSr6-7
Federiko FederikoJr6-11
Ishmael LeggettJr6-3
Dior JohnsonFr6-3
Zack AustinSo6-5
Jorge Diaz GrahamSo6-11
Jaland LoweFr6-1
William JeffressJr6-7
Papa KanteFr6-10
Carlton CarringtonFr6-4
166Federiko FederikoPitt193.2
171Blake HinsonPitt18.13.1
371Ishmael LeggettPitt18.62.2
453Zack AustinPitt20.91.8

Virginia Tech

This was a competitive team last year that returns it’s backcourt. Lynn Kidd and Mylyjael Poteat were efficent and should be able to replace some of Grant Basile’s production.

Sean PedullaJr6-1
Hunter CattoorSr6-3
Rodney RiceSo6-4
Robbie BeranSr6-9
Lynn KiddSr6-10
Mekhi LongSr6-7
Tyler NickelSo6-7
Michael Collins Jr.So6-4
Mylyjael PoteatSr6-9
Brandon RechsteinerFr6-1
248Sean PedullaVirginia Tech16.22.8
271Robbie BeranVirginia Tech13.52.7
298Hunter CattoorVirginia Tech14.92.6

Boston College

Quinten Post is one of the best players no one talks about. Boston College was 16-17 (9-11) in the ACC last year with Post only playing 19 games on the season. but do lose their leading scorer Makai Ashton-Langford (12.4ppg, 16.3 PER). His production is likely replaceable though. With Post on the court more I like this team to be better overall. The numbers he put up with out any games vs cupcake OOC games make his numbers more impressive.

Quinten PostSr7-0
Jaeden ZackeryJr6-2
Devin McGlocktonJr6-7
Claudell Harris Jr.Jr6-3
Mason MadsenSr6-4
Prince AligbeSo6-6
Donald Hand Jr.So6-5
Chas KelleySo6-5
Jayden HastingsFr6-9
Fred PayneFr6-1
81Quinten PostBoston College25.33.8
345Jaeden ZackeryBoston College13.42.4
528Prince AligbeBoston College9.21.5


You always hate to see a hall of fame coach go out like he did. Now Syracuse has new leadership for the first time since the early 70’s. Judah Mintz is very good but I wouldn’t expect much from this team.

Judah MintzSo6-3
Maliq BrownSo6-8
Benny WilliamsJr6-8
JJ StarlingSo6-4
Chris BellSo6-7
Chance WestrySo6-6
Justin TaylorSo6-6
Kyle Cuffe Jr.So6-2
Naheem McLeodJr7-4
Quadir CopelandSo6-6
156Judah MintzSyracuse19.83.2
365Benny WilliamsSyracuse14.42.3
413JJ StarlingSyracuse11.82

Georgia Tech

Damon Stoudamire was a pretty solid hire. He has the name recognition and did a pretty solid job at Pacific, a place that doesn’t win a lot. By year 4 there he was 23-10 (11-1) and 3rd in the WCC before taking a job with the Boston Celtics. Those NBA ties should help as well. The roster doesn’t have a lot of talent that pops this season though.

Miles KellyJr6-6
Deebo ColemanJr6-6
Lance TerrySr6-2
Kowacie ReevesJr6-6
Kyle SturdivantSr6-3
Tyzhaun ClaudeSr6-8
Amaree AbramSo6-4
Carter MurphySr6-4
Baye NdongoFr6-10
Ebenezer DowuonaSr6-11
330Miles KellyGeorgia Tech14.42.4
381Amaree AbramGeorgia Tech112.1
412Lance TerryGeorgia Tech12.42.1
423Kowacie ReevesGeorgia Tech12.32.0

Florida State

Leonard Hamilton we believe is very much on the hot seat after going 9-23 (7-13) last season and 17-14(10-10) the season prior. At 75 years old you have to think he wants to have one strong season and retire on a high note after having a such a great career. I don’t think this team has the talent to do much unfortunately.

Darin Green Jr.Sr6-5
Primo SpearsJr6-3
Jalen WarleyJr6-6
Cam’Ron FletcherSr6-7
Cameron CorhenSo6-10
Jamir WatkinsJr6-7
Jaylan GaineySr6-9
Josh NickelberrySr6-4
Baba MillerSo6-11
Chandler JacksonSo6-5
232Primo SpearsFlorida State14.32.8
328Jamir WatkinsFlorida State18.12.4
345Darin Green Jr.Florida State12.92.4
448Josh NickelberryFlorida State14.51.8

Notre Dame

Micah Shrewsberry was a solid hire but this roster is one of the least talented in the P5. It will be tough to do much nationally. Staying out of the basement in the ACC would probalby be an accomplishment.

Carey BoothFr6-10
Markus BurtonFr5-10
Julian Roper IIJr6-3
Braeden ShrewsberryFr6-2
Kebba NjieSo6-10
Tae DavisSo6-9
Logan ImesFr6-4
Tony Sanders Jr.Jr6-7
Matt ZonaJr6-9
J.R KoniecznySo6-6
363Julian Roper IINotre Dame10.32.3
492Kebba NjieNotre Dame11.51.7
506Tae DavisNotre Dame111.6


I think the bridges are already burnt with Kenny Payne. This roster is better overall this season, but you can’t have a season like they did (4-28, #315 NET) in any power conference, much less one of the highest funded programs in the nation and recover. I don’t believe the fans will ever forgive that unless you are in the Final Four or winning it all very soon. This team is miles from that and Payne seems to do less with more. I don’t believe he’s long for this job. Payne built a team with essentially one guard last season, which is coaching malpractice. You can always compete with undersized players playing up. You will stink if you don’t have guys that can even get the ball up the court or get you into offense effectively. I bet they wish they had Chris Mack back now.

Tre WhiteSo6-7
Mike JamesSo6-5
Skyy ClarkSo6-3
Brandon Huntley-HatfieldJr6-10
JJ TraynorSr6-8
Dennis EvansFr7-1
Emmanuel OkoraforSo6-9
Koron DavisJr6-7
Danilo JovanovichSo6-8
Kaleb GlennFr6-6
246Tre WhiteLouisville13.62.8
432Michael JamesLouisville11.42.1
485Skyy ClarkLouisville9.51.9

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