Our model, ADJeff ratings, are just a rating of the D1 players and their Adjust Efficiency by strength of schedule.There are other factors we consider in the overall team rankings like coaching, continuity, incoming freshmen, JUCO, team build, fit, etc.
I wouldnt’ have had the Blue Jay’s this high just by the eye test, but the model is off the charts for them. Ryan Kalkbrenner is one of the best players in the nation and I believe they got better with Steven Ashworth . By the numbers this is an improvement over Ryan Nembhard in our model. Ashworth was the best nonbig in the country available in the portal. Arthur Kaluma elected to transfer as well, and some say that might be addition by subtraction. If he knew his role he would be great on this team as a wing stopper, but it has plenty of highly efficient scorers and didn’t need him for a usage role.
Shaka Smart returned most of his main contributors. Kameron Jones didn’t test the NBA Draft which was a bit of a surprise after an unexpectedly strong season. Olivier-Maxence Prosper did however enter the draft and will not return. Everyone else came back and are really young meaning there should be some improvement on a typical team. That said I think they played some over their head last season as a preseason 9th projection in the Big East. I wouldn’t expect another huge leap rather than maintenance in this case.
It wouldn’t shock me if they actually slumped or took some step back even before the loss of Olivier-Maxence Prosper. Water already seemed to find its level in the NCAA tournament as is typically the case with teams that were unexpectedly high seeds without the preseason accolades as history has shown. However, Prosper isn’t the greatest loss in our opinion as he was 4th on the team statistically. That is the good news. Overall there were more players than we expected to stay in the draft on other top teams like UConn this year so this feels like you have to have them here with what they return.
UConn could have returned everyone that matters from a dominant NCAA Championship run. Unfortunately for them Jordan Hawkins , Andre Jackson, and Adama Sanogo entered the NBA draft and capitalized while their stock is high. Considering where Sanogo was mocked I would have thought it would have made some sense for him to return on a similar if not more lucrative NIL deal.
Even with Sanogo not returning Donovan Clingan behind him should be the next big thing with a 35 PER in his limited role last year. The key will be staying out of foul trouble. They also have 5-Star Stephon Castle coming in. Tristen Newton will use his extra 5th year’s covid season. Newton and Alex Karaban are capable of more in our opinion, especially Newton as a primary scorer. This is a player that averaged 38ppg in 5A Texas High School, before averaging 18ppg mostly in a quality American Conference on a 57.5% True Shooting, and stepped up in the championship game as a primary scorer. This was a stacked team that had a dominating run on the way to the championship-winning by 20 points on average. They only trailed for 40 seconds in the 2nd half during the entire NCAA tournament.
This however will be a much different team now, but one that still has talent and some core experience. UConn likely waited on the players that entered the NBA to return before going into the portal and seemed to have been a little burned but recovered nicely with late addition Cam Spencer .
Villanova has great talent, but I’m not sure how much I trust the coaching yet. By our model, they have top 5 to 10 type of talent. This season should give Nova fans a much better picture if they have replaced Jay Wright with the right man. Fordham improving after Kyle Neptune moved on from 16-16 to 25-8 is a little bit of a redflag.
Rick Pitino has a few more years in coaching and will try to revive St. John’s before retirement. He’s well on his way assembling a lot of talent this off-season. He should be elevated to one of the top coaches in the nation again after an interesting fall from grace and return back for the Hall of Famer.
Kim English is in as the new coach. He has a lot of talent returning and brought Josh Oduro over with him from George Mason. George Mason wasn’t very impressive though so the question seems to be more with English than the talent.
They lose Souley Boum and Jack Nunge and Colby Jones but return Zach Freemantle. Xavier will have talent but I’d like to see a little more of it dispersed in the backcourt. If McKnight or Olivari were to be injured I think it has the potential to cripple the team some.
Kadary Richmond returns and seems capable of more. He’s a well-rounded 6-6 player who is good at a lot of aspects. Averaging 10ppg, 5rpg, 4apg. He shot 44% from three but on a very small volume. He’s a career 37.5% three point shooter on 112 shots so he seems to have more potential to explore as a shooter if he upts his usage. It’s a strong perimeter group, but the post players are the question mark.
