Our model, ADJeff ratings, are just a rating of the D1 players and their Adjust Efficiency by strength of schedule.There are other factors we consider in the overall team rankings like coaching, continuity, incoming freshmen, JUCO, team build, fit, etc.
Losing to a 15th-seed Princeton in the tournament isn’t any more ideal than Purdue losing, but I don’t put a lot into that. Upsets happen and this was a top 10 team by most metrics. Princeton was also a strong 15 seed and proved that making the Sweet 16. Two of their top returners averaging double-digit points can return for coach Tommy Lloyd. Azuolas Tubelis is a tough loss, but Oumar Ballo should be one of the best players in the country next year and the post is where the value of this team is. They also added Keshad Johnson from San Deigo State to help mitigate the loss some. Losing Kerr Kriisa in the portal is a surprise, but I think they will be able to replace him fairly easily. His impact was a little overstated by most in our opinion. Pelle Larsson should be able to take over some of the ball handling duties and adding Jaden Bradley gives them a still strong potential starting 5. Caleb Love was a late pick up after he couldn’t get into Michigan. We think they still needed to bring in a little more proven ball handling. If Tommy Lloyd can get Love’s shooting under control and playing a role on this team behind the big men, he could be helpful. If he’s coming here to play the role he did at UNC with that level of usage this could be a negative.
Colorado will likely return all of their starters. Tristan Da Silva and KJ Simpson are a solid one-two punch. They add Cody Williams who others have as high as 2nd in the draft. We are less high on him but he is a big addition to a team that is pretty good.
The Trojans weren?t very good this season, but high school Wooten Player of the Year winner Isaiah Collier is on his way. Tre White would have helped but he’s off to Louisville. I believe Collier is a star but in the super senior age, I’m skeptical of 18-year-olds in general when everyone else is much older. (Brandon Miller was 20 years old and a lot more ready.) Collier is going to be asked to be a team star as well. They also landed Bronny James late in the process. If he’s getting legacy minutes just because he was promised them to commit that may not be a good thing. I’m more skeptical about him being a major contributor. (Edit: Bronny James had a health scare after this was written. Hopefully he can get on the court but that’s unknown at this point)
Mick Cronin has lost most of his team Jaime Jaquez , Jaylen Clark, Tyger Campbell and Amari Bailey. It’s a tough blow as all could have returned. Freshmen in Adem Bona and Dylan Andrews that are probably ready for more and will now need to be. This is the most influx team there is with only one transfer coming in ( Lazar Stefanovic ). ADAY MARA is a huge get over the summer. We have the 7’3″ ranked in the top 10 in our 2024 Mock NBA Draft. He’s a bit of a weird fit with Bona and making it to the NCAA would still be an accomplishment.
Washington has some talent, but they seem to underachieve it at times. The seat could be getting a little hot for Mike Hopkins as eventually did for his former boss at Syracuse. This seems like a make or break type of season. We like the talent, with all these seniors it seems like NCAA or bust.
This is another program where the talent really pops and that has a lot of seniors. Will they do less with more? This seems like a make or break year for Jared Haase especially with Stanford Alum Mark Madsen arriving in the bay.
The Sun Devils made it to the NCAA’s last year saving Bobby Hurley’s job most likely. Most of that team has now departed though. Bryant Selebangue manning the middle on defense will be a major step back from Warren Washington last season. Do they have enough to be competitive this season is the question. Was a first four victory as an 11 seed enough to save Hurley’s job potentially for two seasons or will he soon be back on his brothers staff.
Branden Carlson is one of the best players in the nation. This team is loaded with seniors as well. It’s another program that needs to take a step this year in Craig Smith’s 3rd season. If they can’t with Carlson and these seniors year 4 might not be a kind rebuild.
Wayne Tinkle had the Beavers in the Elite 8 in 2021. It was an unexpected run as a 12 seed but has only won 14 games since. That’s kind of how it goes for him as they only won 5 games the season after their previous NCAA appearance. Does that Elite8 get him a lifetime contract, I’m not sure. Going 3-28 the season after and 11-21 (5-15) last season I have to think makes this an important season. The talent doesn’t seem there to compete.