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College Basketball

SEC Basketball Preview 2023-24

2023-2024 SEC Basketball Predictions & Preview

Conference Previews

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Our model, ADJeff ratings, are just a rating of the D1 players and their Adjust Efficiency by strength of schedule. There are other factors we consider in the overall team rankings like coaching, continuity, incoming freshmen, JUCO, team build, fit, etc.

Team
ADJeff		2023
NET
1Tennessee3.84
2Texas A&M4.219
3Auburn4.332
4Arkansas3.621
5Miss State3.749
6Ole Miss3.8124
7Alabama3.32
8Kentucky3.126
9Florida3.662
10Missouri3.142
11Vanderbilt3.481
12LSU3.9151
13Georgia2.6152
14S. Carolina2.8234

The Top SEC Players by Adjusted Efficiency

PERADJeff
5Johni BroomeAuburn28.15.8
8Tolu SmithMiss State28.95.2
27Wade Taylor IVTexas A&M24.54.5
32Makhi MitchellArkansas22.94.4
33Tyrese SamuelFlorida22.84.4
40Moussa CisseOle Miss20.04.3
53Jaylin WilliamsAuburn19.34.1
60Tyrin LawrenceVanderbilt19.54.0
63Will BakerLSU21.94.0
79Jaemyn BrakefieldOle Miss19.23.8
81Henry ColemanTexas A&M19.73.8
89Will RichardFlorida18.43.7
91Tre MitchellKentucky16.03.7
96Zakai ZeiglerTennessee17.83.6
97Ezra ManjonVanderbilt17.73.6
98Mark SearsAlabama16.43.6
106Jalen CookLSU21.03.6
108Jordan WrightLSU17.83.6
118Santiago VescoviTennessee17.13.5
120Derek FountainLSU19.33.5
122Tyrece RadfordTexas A&M18.03.5
139Josiah-Jordan JamesTennessee16.63.3
141Julius MarbleTexas A&M17.03.3
152Braelen BridgesGeorgia19.83.3
160Khalif BattleArkansas18.33.2
172Allen FlaniganOle Miss14.63.1
181Connor VanoverMissiouri28.23.1
183Antonio ReevesKentucky15.53.1
187Cameron MatthewsMiss State16.73.1
192John TonjeMissouri18.43.0
196El EllisArkansas16.43.0
202DeAndre GholstonMissouri14.92.9
205Aaron EstradaAlabama23.32.9
207Denver JonesAuburn22.52.9
211Carlos StewartLSU17.22.9
213Jalen DeloachGeorgia21.22.9
218Jamarion SharpOle Miss22.02.9
220Jeremiah DavenportArkansas15.82.9
240Walter ClaytonFlorida25.52.8
244B.J. MackS. Carolina27.12.8
251Shakeel MooreMiss State14.92.8
257Jahvon QuinerlyAlabama13.62.7
263Dalton KnechtTennessee23.22.7
265Myles StuteS. Carolina15.52.7
267Ta’Lon CooperS. Carolina13.62.7
275Caleb GrillMissouri12.52.7

Tennessee (25-11, #4 NET)

Tennessee is a deep team with a lot of good players and not overly dependent on one or two. It was still would be better if Santiago Vescovi came back for year five. Zakai Zeigler returned but Julian Phillips stayed in the draft. Olivier Nkamhoua is solid and also hit the portal and Uros Plavsic was encouraged to leave it seems. Again it’s one of the deeper teams. If you are going to play a lot of players you have to expect some to be unhappy with the depressed minutes and role, so that’s part of it as is next man up. They have backfill with a strong transfer class as well.

Santiago VescoviSr6-3
Zakai ZeiglerJr5-9
Josiah-Jordan JamesSr6-6
Jonas AidooJr6-11
Dalton KnechtSr6-6
Jahmai MashackJr6-4
Freddie DilloneFr6-4
Jordan GaineyJr6-4
Cameron CarrFr6-4
JP EstrellaFr6-11
Santiago Vescovi6-312.5 Pts, 4.6 Reb, 3.1 Ast
Zakai Zeigler5-910.7 Pts, 2.7 Reb, 5.4 Ast
Josiah-Jordan James6-610.0 Pts, 4.7 Reb, 1.8 Ast
Jonas Aidoo6-115.1 Pts, 4.9 Reb, 0.9 Ast
Jahmai Mashack6-44.7 Pts, 2.4 Reb, 1.5 Ast
Tobe Awaka6-83.2 Pts, 3.8 Reb, 0.3 Ast
Top 250PERADJeff
89Zakai ZeiglerTennessee17.83.6
106Santiago VescoviTennessee17.13.5
123Josiah-Jordan JamesTennessee16.63.3
215Dalton KnechtTennessee23.22.7

Transfers

PERADJeff
87Dalton Knecht6’6N. Colorado23.22.7
331Jordan Gainey6’4USC Up15.91.4

Class of 2023

57Freddie Dilione6’6Word of GodTennessee
59JP Estrella6’11Brewster AcademyTennessee

Auburn (21-13, #32 NET)

Johni Broome and Jaylin Williams return and the additions of Denver Jones and our #1 JUCO player Chad Baker-Mazera should give them an opposing defense. Chad Baker-Mazera had a solid season with San Diego State prior to JUCO’s. He had the 2nd highest defensive rating on the the top defensive team that season and led his JUCO team to the National Championship game. The biggest question is at point guard.

Johni BroomeJr6-10
Jaylin WilliamsSr6-8
K.D. JohnsonSr6-0
Denver JonesJr6-4
Aden HollowayFr6-0
Chaney JohnsonJr6-7
Dylan CardwellSr6-11
Chris MooreSr6-6
Tre DonaldsonSo6-2
Lior BermanSr6-4
Johni Broome6-1014.2 Pts, 8.4 Reb, 1.3 Ast
Jaylin Williams6-811.2 Pts, 4.7 Reb, 2.2 Ast
K.D. Johnson6-18.9 Pts, 1.9 Reb, 1.3 Ast
Dylan Cardwell6-113.7 Pts, 3.8 Reb, 1.1 Ast
Chris Moore6-63.5 Pts, 2.1 Reb, 0.6 Ast
Top 250PERADJeff
5Johni BroomeAuburn28.095.8
53Jaylin WilliamsAuburn19.34.1
173Denver JonesAuburn22.52.9

Transfers

TransfersPERADJeff
57Denver Jones6’4FIU22.52.9
428Chaney Johnson6’7UAHD20.8

Class of 2023

45Aden Holloway6?0Auburn

Texas A&M (25-10, #19 NET)

The Aggie play such a deep rotation they will always have an experienced player. The problem is playing so many means they have to replace more. With Wade Taylor, Henry Coleman, and Julius Marble likely to return most of the core should be intact.

Wade Taylor IVJr6-0
Tyrece RadfordSr6-2
Henry Coleman IIISr6-8
Julius Marble IISr6-9
Eli LawrenceSr6-5
Manny ObasekiJr6-4
Andersson GarciaSr6-7
Jace CarterJr6-5
Hayden HefnerSr6-6
Solomon WashingtonSo6-7
Wade Taylor6-016.3 Pts, 2.7 Reb, 3.9 Ast
Tyrece Radford6-213.3 Pts, 5.3 Reb, 2.4 Ast
Julius Marble6-89.1 Pts, 4.1 Reb, 0.4 Ast
Henry Coleman6-79.0 Pts, 5.7 Reb, 0.9 Ast
Hayden Hefner6-63.4 Pts, 0.7 Reb, 0.5 Ast
Andersson Garcia6-73.2 Pts, 4.4 Reb, 0.8 Ast
Manny Obaseki6-45.2 Pts, 1.4 Reb, 1.0 Ast
Solomon Washington6-73.2 Pts, 2.9 Reb, 0.3 Ast
Top 250PERADJeff
25Wade Taylor IVTexas A&M24.474.5
78Henry ColemanTexas A&M19.73.8
111Tyrece RadfordTexas A&M18.03.5
131Julius MarbleTexas A&M17.23.3

Transfers

168Eli Lawrence6’5MTSU16.32.3
273Jace Carter6’5UIC19.91.7

Arkansas (22-14, #21 NET)

The Razorbacks lost Ricky Council and Devonte Davis. We know Eric Musselman will hit the portal hard. He’s already connected with all 1600 transfers it seems. It?s just a given he lands some good ones eventually and he did. Top 12 five star Baye Fall will help as well. One thing is for sure Musselman stacks the rosters. I’m not sure how he makes all the promises he does or players sign on seeing all the competition but they do. Once again it’s one of the best recruiting classes in the country for combined freshman and transfers.

Khalif BattleJr6-5
Tramon MarkSr6-5
Makhi MitchellSr6-9
Davonte DavisSr6-4
Trevon BrazileJr6-10
El EllisSr6-3
Jeremiah DavenportSr6-7
Keyon MenifieldSo6-1
Baye FallFr6-10
Chandler LawsonSr6-7
Trevon Brazile6-911.8 Pts, 6.0 Reb, 1.0 A
Makhi Mitchell6-97.0 Pts, 5.3 Reb, 1.1 Ast
Jalen Graham6-95.2 Pts, 2.3 Reb, 0.5 Ast
Top 250PERADJeff
30Makhi MitchellArkansas22.94.4
136Khalif BattleArkansas18.33.2
165El EllisArkansas16.43.0
186Jeremiah DavenportArkansas15.82.9
235Tramon MarkArkansas15.62.6
236Keyon MenifieldArkansas14.52.6

Transfers

TransfersPERADJeff
35Khalif Battle6’5Temple18.33.2
54El Ellis6’3Louisville16.43.0
69Jeremiah Davenport6’7Cincinnati15.82.9
107Tramon Mark6’5Houston15.62.6
109Keyon Menifield6’1Washington14.52.6

Class of 2023

12Baye Fall6’11Arkansas
33Layden Blocker6’1Arkansas

Mississippi State (21-13)

Returning Tolu Smith is huge, but this is a team that needed more three point shooting than just Andrew Taylor. I’d expect a similar season of grinding it out defensively now to last year. MSU was 363rd in three point shooting at only 26%. Worst in the nation. That would be frustrating to be a fan and have an obvious need only addressed with one player. There will be times they need to try to make a comeback and you need at least 2 or 3 three point threats to put on the court.

Tolu SmithSr6-11
D.J. JeffriesSr6-7
Andrew TaylorSr6-3
Dashawn DavisSr6-2
JaQuan ScottJr6-8
Shakeel MooreSr6-1
Cameron MatthewsSr6-7
Trey FortJr6-4
Jimmy Bell Jr.Sr6-10
Josh HubbardFr5-10
Top 250
8Tolu SmithMiss State28.995.2
167Cameron MatthewsMiss State16.73.1
222Shakeel MooreMiss State14.92.8

Ole Miss

Chris Beard got a new job but everything will hinge this season on if Moussa Cisse gets a waiver.

Jaemyn BrakefieldSr6-8
Moussa CisseSr7-1
Brandon MurrayJr6-5
Allen FlaniganSr6-6
Jamarion SharpSr7-5
TJ CaldwellSo6-4
Austin NunezSo6-2
Rashaud MarshallFr6-9
Jaylen MurrayJr5-11
Cameron BarnesFr6-10
Top 250
40Moussa CisseOle Miss20.04.3
76Jaemyn BrakefieldOle Miss19.23.8
151Allen FlaniganOle Miss14.63.1
189Jamarion SharpOle Miss22.02.9

Florida (16-17 #62 NET)

A nice transfer haul has to get Florida some consideration for the top 25. Tyrese Samuel is a better player than the perception.

Micah HandlogtenSo7-1
Tyrese SamuelSr6-10
Thomas HaughFr6-9
EJ JarvisSr6-8
Riley KugelSo6-5
Julian RishwainSr6-5
Denzel AberdeenSo6-5
Will RichardJr6-4
Zyon PullinSr6-4
Walter Clayton Jr.Jr6-2
Top 250
31Tyrese SamuelFlorida22.84.4
83Will RichardFlorida18.43.7
200Walter ClaytonFlorida25.52.8
252Zyon PullinFlorida21.72.6

Transfers

4Tyrese Samuel6’10Seton Hall22.84.4
93Walter Clayton6’2Iona25.52.8
126Zyon Pullin6’421.72.6
151Micah Handlogten7’1Marshall23.72.3
171Ed Jarvis6’8Yale25.72.1

Kentucky (22-12, #26 NET)

The Wildcats could return, Antonio Reeves and not much else. Sahvir Wheeler and CJ Fredrick have entered the portal but they could improve on those positions with better size. The good news regardless is they have the top-ranked recruiting class coming. John Calipari is leaning back into the one-and-done model hard as well after focusing more on transfers the last couple of years. With covid super seniors and college basketball still older than ever it’s a little harder than in the past to win with freshmen unless they are 20 years old like Brandon Miller. Duke didn’t light it up this season for example, but Calipari is a more experienced coach coaching freshmen. I trust him to figure it out a little more. Justin Edwards is an older player even as a freshman go and should be ready to help big from day one. Still replacing a national player of the year I can’t see them being better.

Justin EdwardsFr6-7
DJ WagnerFr6-3
Tre MitchellSr6-9
Antonio ReevesSr6-5
Aaron BradshawFr7-0
Robert DillinghamFr6-2
Ugonna OnyensoSo6-9
Reed SheppardFr6-3
Jordan BurksFr6-7
Adou ThieroSo6-6
Antonio Reeves6-414.4 Pts, 2.1 Reb, 1.1 Ast
Top 250PERADJeff
84Tre MitchellKentucky16.03.7
156Antonio ReevesKentucky15.53.1

Class of 2023

2Justin Edwards6?6?Kentucky
11Dajuan Wagner Jr6?4?Kentucky
13Aaron Bradshaw7?0?Kentucky
17Robert Dillingham6?2?Kentucky
44Reed Sheppard6?3?Kentucky

LSU (14-19 #151 NET)

Jalen Cook has returned to LSU along with a nice transfer class added. Will he get a waiver by the NCAA will determine if this team has more potential or is head towards the basement.

Jalen CookJr6-0
Will BakerSr7-0
Carlos StewartJr6-1
Derek FountainSr6-10
Jordan WrightSr6-6
Trae HannibalSr6-2
Hunter DeanSr6-10
Tyrell WardSo6-6
Daimion CollinsJr6-9
Jalen ReedSo6-10
Top 250
64Will BakerLSU21.94.0
98Jalen CookLSU21.03.6
100Jordan WrightLSU17.83.6
108Derek FountainLSU19.33.5
177Carlos StewartLSU17.22.9

Alabama (31-6, #2 NET)

Mark Sears will return, but I don’t see a 20-year-old freshman ready like Brandon Miller was waiting in the wings, but Nate Oats can coach. Alabama was seemingly caught off guard by Charles Bediako staying in the draft. Leaving only Nick Pringle really to man the post as well as a freshman. They also lost transfer commit Jaykwon Walton. I’m was pretty skeptical of the talent, but the late addition of big man Grant Nelson will give them a good chance.

Mark SearsSr6-1
Aaron EstradaSr6-3
Rylan GriffenSo6-5
Latrell Wrightsell Jr.Sr6-3
Grant NelsonSr6-11
Sam WaltersFr6-8
Nick PringleSr6-9
Mohamed WagueJr6-10
Kris ParkerFr6-6
Mouhamed DioubateFr6-7
Mark Sears6-112.5 Pts, 3.5 Reb, 2.6 Ast
Jahvon Quinerly6-18.7 Pts, 1.9 Reb, 3.6 Ast
Rylan Griffen6-55.9 Pts, 2.6 Reb, 0.7 Ast
Noah Gurley6-84.9 Pts, 3.1 Reb, 0.6 Ast
Nick Pringle6-93.5 Pts, 3.1 Reb, 0.2 Ast
Top 250PERADJeff
90Mark SearsAlabama16.43.6
139Grant NelsonAlabama27.73.3
171Aaron EstradaAlabama23.32.9
232Jahvon QuinerlyAlabama13.62.7

Transfers

55Aaron Estrada6’4Hofstra23.32.9
136Latrell Wrightsell Jr.6’3Cal Fullerton19.72.4
Mohamed Wague6’10West Virginia

Class of 2023

66Kris Parker6’6Alabama
92Sam Walters6’9Alabama
110Davin Cosby Jr6’5Alabama
130Mouhamed Dioubate6’7Alabama

Missouri (25-10, #42 NET)

D’Moi Hodge and Nick Honor have exhausted their eligibility. Kobe Brown had a 5th year but elected not to use it after a stand out season. DeAndre Gholtston and Noah Carter could return. They have also added the #2 JUCO player Curt Lewis in the nation per our rankings. He averaged 10ppg at Eastern Kentucky prior to that and should help.

Noah CarterSr6-6
Nick HonorSr5-10
Caleb GrillSr6-3
John TonjeSr6-5
Connor VanoverSr7-3
Curt LewisJr6-5
Sean East IISr6-3
Tamar BatesJr6-5
Jesus CarraleroSr6-8
Aidan ShawSo6-8
DeAndre Gholston6-510.9 Pts, 2.4 Reb, 1.8 Ast
Noah Carter6-69.6 Pts, 4.0 Reb, 1.8 Ast
Nick Honor5-107.9 Pts, 1.6 Reb, 2.9 Ast
Sean East6-37.3 Pts, 2.1 Reb, 2.5 Ast
Isiaih Mosley6-59.6 Pts, 2.0 Reb, 2.5 Ast
Tre Gomillion6-44.8 Pts, 2.8 Reb, 1.6 Ast
Aidan Shaw6-82.7 Pts, 1.7 Reb, 0.1 Ast
Top 250
164Connor VanoverMissouri28.23.1
172John TonjeMissouri18.43.0
182DeAndre GholstonMissouri14.92.9
239Caleb GrillMissouri12.52.7

Transfers

50John Tonje6’5Colorado St18.43.0
Curt Lewis #2 JUCO
209Tamar Bates6’5Indiana10.02.1
359Jesus Carralero6’8Campbell19.61.3

Class of 2023

91Trent Pierce6’7AZ Compass PrepMissouri
102Jordan Butler6’11Christ ChurchMissouri
124Anthony Robinson6’3Florida State University HigMissouri

South Carolina

The Gamecocks were so bad last year finishing over 200th in NET. I would expect these season to go much much better. Trying to win with freshmen in the age of the super senior covid age is less than ideal anyway. Maybe if they are 20 years old like Brandon Miller that can work, but your best player can’t be 17 year olds like GG Smith was. He was ok, but shouldn’t have been in that lead role.

B.J. MackSr6-8
Meechie Johnson Jr.Sr6-2
Ta’Lon CooperSr6-4
Jacobi WrightJr6-2
Myles StuteSr6-7
Ebrima DibbaSr6-6
Stephen ClarkSr6-8
Josh GraySr7-0
Zachary DavisSo6-8
Collin Murray-BoylesFr6-7
223B.J. MackS. Carolina27.12.8
237Myles StuteS. Carolina15.52.7
239Ta’Lon CooperS. Carolina13.62.7
300Meechie Johnson Jr.S. Carolina13.32.4

Vanderbilt

Jerry Stackhouse had some players enter the portal and was fortunate to bring one important one back. This team is still lacking the punch to really compete though in one of the toughest conferences in America. Making it back to the NIT would be an accomplishment after losing the value on this team in Liam Robbins. He was one of the best individual players in the nation.

Ezra ManjonSr6-0
Tyrin LawrenceSr6-4
Ven-Allen LubinSo6-8
Colin SmithSo6-8
Evan TaylorSr6-6
Tasos KamaterosSr6-8
Paul LewisSo6-2
Lee DortSo6-10
Jason Rivera-TorresFr6-6
Isaiah WestFr6-2
60Tyrin LawrenceVanderbilt19.54.0
96Ezra ManjonVanderbilt17.73.6
287Ven-Allen LubinVanderbilt20.32.6
297Colin SmithVanderbilt12.12.6

Georgia

Georgia is making improvements under Mike White. You question how far he can take them longterm, but given where they had fallen to under Crean, getting back in the top 100 mix would be an accomplishment at this point and White can make them respectable.

Noah ThomassonSr6-3
Justin HillSr6-0
Jabri Abdur-RahimSr6-8
Russel TchewaSr7-0
RJ MelendezJr6-7
Jalen DeLoachJr6-9
Matthew-Alexander MoncrieffeSr6-8
R.J. SunaharaSr6-8
Blue CainFr6-4
Dylan JamesFr6-8
198Jalen DeloachGeorgia21.22.9
262Justin HillGeorgia15.62.6
298Russel TchewaGeorgia17.12.4
332RJ MelendezGeorgia11.92.3

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