Our model, ADJeff ratings, are just a rating of the D1 players and their Adjust Efficiency by strength of schedule.There are other factors we consider in the overall team rankings like coaching, continuity, incoming freshmen, JUCO, team build, fit, etc.
Zach Edey‘s draft prospects aren’t considered great by most. We believe he will be a highly successful NBA player, but if he’s not going to be drafted highly he was always likely to return with the NIL what it is now.
Edey’s combine stats were incredible for a player 7-4, 306lbs. He’s has more speed and/or agility from our research than what many notable NBA players measured at the combine including Derrick Rose, Carmelo Anthony, Kevin Durant, Khris Middleton, and Kawhi Leonard. Believe it or not he ran those drills faster, and even had a higher vertical than Durant and Kawhi as well. He’s also the 2nd longest in length measurements in combine history as well. What the NBA community is missing about him we have no clue.
Foster Loyer and Braden Smith were freshmen and played at a high level and return as well, but the key here is Edey, he’s a one man wrecking ball and the team essentially. with his return, you have got to have Purdue near the top with Edey’s. He had one of the the greatest handful of seasons in NCAA history and will likely repeat with another.
We believe they needed to add some quickness around him as a team like FDU who exposed some problems. FDU happened, but it’s only one game. This is the Big Ten regular season and the tournament champion almost completely intact. We would have liked to see a little more activity in the transfer portal but good enough should be good enough. With Edey the number one player individually and by a lot they should have no trouble competing for #1. Kansas is the most talented team in the nation, but Purdue has the best player and continuity returning from a team we know was good and will likely improve.
Matt Painter has an undeniably strong program, but the questions in March are there. I continue to question more though how Painter didn’t have Zach Edey on the court more two years ago when he was putting up the same per 100 stats. I know Trevion Williams was one of the best players in the country as well. Regardless you have to be able to get both on the court together even if it’s less than the sum of their parts because they were still so overwelmingly good. I believe that was possible too the way Williams passed and they both opporated in different areas. If you aren’t willing to do that you had to just play Edey more because he was the guy. That’s coaching, and they should have probably done a little more in the portal around him as well the last two seasons.
Tom Izzo I believe has the highest upside freshman coming in this season in Xavier Booker. We have him mocked as the 3rd pick in the 2024 draft, much higher than others. It’s possible that he’s to skinny to make the kind of impact you would expect a recruit ranking this high to make. I also think Izzo is a great coach that will get what he can out of him and this team more than I trust other coaches. He has Jarren Jackson Jr potential especially if he can gain some weight at a college training table. Booker had a disappointing high school senior year by his standards but has a 7-5 wingspan and shot 36% from three as a Junior, 74% FT’s. There are tools to work with.
The Spartans can return A.J. Hoggard and Jaden Akins as well to give them some experience. Tyson Walker could also use his covid 5th season. Joey Hauser is the big loss, and his floor spacing and gravity from a big man spot could compromise the space this season more than most anticipate. The talent and continuity is here though and Izzo is a great coach to figure it out.
Hakim Hart is in the portal, but 3 of their 4 best players could return if Jahmir Young uses his covid 5th year. Julian Reese is ready for more. It’s a strong core with a potiental All American in Young.
Matthew Mayer is gone, but this is a team that returns a lot of talent. I wonder some about the point guard position, but they seemed to answer that today adding Jeremiah Williams .This is a very talented team.
Kris Murray could have returned, but it wouldn’t be advisable at his age and he did in fact stay in the draft. Coming back probably just makes him less valuable in the draft next season. He will be tough to replace, but Iowa should still return a solid group with Patrick McCaffery, Payton Sandfort, and Tony Perkins.
Mike Woodson had a strong season last year replacing Trace Jackson-Davis will be really though. They also lost Jalen Hood-Schifino who was a top 20 pick in the NBA draft but he’s more replaceable. Someone can fill his usage role at similar production. Jackson-Davis is where there hit is. Kel’el Ware is a good start but he’s not a 23 year old battle tested All American. This team likely takes a step back.
Wisconsin wasn’t very good last season, but they return everyone that matters from a deep NIT run at this point. That postseason experience is usually pretty useful.
Boo Buie will return but Chas Audige elected to stay in the draft. Blake Preston is an underrated player that was a big part of a top 40 NET Liberty team as well transferring in. We like that addition.
Clifford Omoruyi will return. Cam Spencer and Paul Mulcahy unfortunately will not return and have transfered. Aundre Hyatt will use a 5th covid year an help stop the bleeding some. With Omoruyi there is a chance to stay relevant but the other losses hurt.
Keisei Tominaga is one of the more underatted guards in America. He’s one of the best shooters in the country with a .634% true shooting percentage. Rienk Mast and Brice Williams were great additions in teh portal for Fred Hoiberg. Point guard is the question.
New coach, new roster. It has some talent, but how soon they come together will be the question. Bringing Ace Baldwin from VCU to run the same system and set the tone should help in that aspect. It’s going to be a stylistic difference if they play the same way VCU did in the Big Ten. That could work to Penn State’s advantage.
Holtman seems to be feeling some pressure to get better. The team last year was ok by the metrics, but had a losing record and couldn’t get into the NIT despite a 52 NET ranking. Ohio State doesn’t let you have many losing seasons or NIT’s regardless. I’m not sure this team is better. Jamison Battle will need to be healthy and in his former form for much chance of that.
Michigan has the distinction of losing the best transfer ever most likely. A former All American. This team wasn’t very good to begin with last year (61 NET ranking) and also lost a lottery pick. The talent takes a massive step back.
