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Big Ten Basketball Preview 2023-24

2023-2024 Big Ten Basketball Predictions & Preview

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Our model, ADJeff ratings, are just a rating of the D1 players and their Adjust Efficiency by strength of schedule. There are other factors we consider in the overall team rankings like coaching, continuity, incoming freshmen, JUCO, team build, fit, etc.

2Michigan St4.333
7Ohio State3.852
11Penn State2.959

The Top Big Ten Players by Adjusted Efficiency

1Zach EdeyPurdue40.98.2
10Zed KeyOhio State24.75.2
14Julian ReeseMaryland23.54.8
19Dain DainjaIllinois25.34.6
22Jahmir YoungMaryland22.24.5
27Terrance Shannon JrIllinois22.14.4
28A.J. HoggardMichigan State18.74.4
35Keisei TomingaNebraska20.44.3
36Clifford OmoruyiRutgers22.34.3
37Steven CrowlWisconsin204.3
46Tyson WalkerMichigan State17.74.2
48Kel’el WareIndiana21.84.2
49Boo BuieNorthwestern19.74.1
57Payton SandfortIowa20.24.1
58Qudus WahabPenn State20.94.1
63Tony PerkinsIowa17.83.9
76Olivier NkamhouaMichigan19.13.8
78Dawson GarciaMinnesota19.33.8
79Xavier JohnsonIndiana16.83.7
81Braden SmithPurdue18.13.7
101Donta ScottMaryland15.73.6
106Patrick McCafferyIowa17.43.6
108Connor EssegianWisconsin16.63.5
114Jaden AkinsMichigan State14.93.5
126Malik HallMichigan State14.33.3
128Chucky HepburnWisconsin15.23.3
129Brooks BarnhizerNorthwestern16.63.3
137Bruce ThorntonOhio State15.23.3
140Quincy Guerrier *Illinois16.83.2
157Coleman HawkinsIllinois15.43.1
208Rienk MastNebraska24.32.9
219Pharrel PayneMinnesota18.62.9
221Brice WilliamsNebraska23.92.8
222Ace Baldwin Jr.Penn State182.8
237Jamison Battle*Ohio State18.32.7
244Fletcher LoyerPurdue12.62.6
247Ty BerryNorthwestern12.92.6
249Max KlesmitWisconsin122.6
279Dug McDanielMichigan12.52.6

Purdue (29-6, #5 NET)

Zach Edey‘s draft prospects aren’t considered great by most. We believe he will be a highly successful NBA player, but if he’s not going to be drafted highly he was always likely to return with the NIL what it is now.

Edey’s combine stats were incredible for a player 7-4, 306lbs. He’s has more speed and/or agility from our research than what many notable NBA players measured at the combine including Derrick Rose, Carmelo Anthony, Kevin Durant, Khris Middleton, and Kawhi Leonard. Believe it or not he ran those drills faster, and even had a higher vertical than Durant and Kawhi as well. He’s also the 2nd longest in length measurements in combine history as well. What the NBA community is missing about him we have no clue.

Foster Loyer and Braden Smith were freshmen and played at a high level and return as well, but the key here is Edey, he’s a one man wrecking ball and the team essentially. with his return, you have got to have Purdue near the top with Edey’s. He had one of the the greatest handful of seasons in NCAA history and will likely repeat with another.

We believe they needed to add some quickness around him as a team like FDU who exposed some problems. FDU happened, but it’s only one game. This is the Big Ten regular season and the tournament champion almost completely intact. We would have liked to see a little more activity in the transfer portal but good enough should be good enough. With Edey the number one player individually and by a lot they should have no trouble competing for #1. Kansas is the most talented team in the nation, but Purdue has the best player and continuity returning from a team we know was good and will likely improve.

Matt Painter has an undeniably strong program, but the questions in March are there. I continue to question more though how Painter didn’t have Zach Edey on the court more two years ago when he was putting up the same per 100 stats. I know Trevion Williams was one of the best players in the country as well. Regardless you have to be able to get both on the court together even if it’s less than the sum of their parts because they were still so overwelmingly good. I believe that was possible too the way Williams passed and they both opporated in different areas. If you aren’t willing to do that you had to just play Edey more because he was the guy. That’s coaching, and they should have probably done a little more in the portal around him as well the last two seasons.

Zach EdeySr7-4
Fletcher LoyerSo6-4
Braden SmithSo6-0
Caleb FurstJr6-10
Mason GillisSr6-6
Ethan MortonSr6-7
Trey Kaufman-RennSo6-9
Lance JonesSr6-1
Myles ColvinFr6-5
Camden HeideFr6-5
Zach Edey7-422.3 Pts, 12.9 Reb, 1.5 Ast
Fletcher Loyer6-411.0 Pts, 1.7 Reb, 2.4 Ast
Braden Smith6-09.7 Pts, 4.2 Reb, 4.4 Ast
Mason Gillis6-66.8 Pts, 3.8 Reb, 1.3 Ast
Caleb Furst6-105.5 Pts, 4.6 Reb, 0.7 Ast
Trey Kaufman-Renn6-94.5 Pts, 1.8 Reb, 0.7 Ast
Ethan Morton6-63.8 Pts, 2.9 Reb, 2.4 Ast
Top 250 PERADJeff
1Zach EdeyPurdue40.988.2
81Braden SmithPurdue18.13.7
244Fletcher LoyerPurdue12.62.6


264Lance Jones6’1SIU Edward15.11.8

Class of 2023

48Myles J. Colvin6?5?Purdue
112Dravyn Gibbs-Lawhorn6?2?Purdue

Michigan State (21-13, #33)

Tom Izzo I believe has the highest upside freshman coming in this season in Xavier Booker. We have him mocked as the 3rd pick in the 2024 draft, much higher than others. It’s possible that he’s to skinny to make the kind of impact you would expect a recruit ranking this high to make. I also think Izzo is a great coach that will get what he can out of him and this team more than I trust other coaches. He has Jarren Jackson Jr potential especially if he can gain some weight at a college training table. Booker had a disappointing high school senior year by his standards but has a 7-5 wingspan and shot 36% from three as a Junior, 74% FT’s. There are tools to work with.

The Spartans can return A.J. Hoggard and Jaden Akins as well to give them some experience. Tyson Walker could also use his covid 5th season. Joey Hauser is the big loss, and his floor spacing and gravity from a big man spot could compromise the space this season more than most anticipate. The talent and continuity is here though and Izzo is a great coach to figure it out.

Tyson WalkerSr6-1
A.J. HoggardSr6-4
Malik HallSr6-8
Jaden AkinsJr6-4
Xavier BookerFr6-10
Mady SissokoSr6-9
Jeremy FearsFr6-0
Coen CarrFr6-7
Jaxon KohlerSo6-9
Trejuan HollomanSo6-2
Tyson Walker6-014.8 Pts, 2.5 Reb, 2.9 Ast
A.J. Hoggard6-312.9 Pts, 3.7 Reb, 5.9 Ast
Jaden Akins6-49.8 Pts, 4.0 Reb, 1.2 Ast
Malik Hall6-78.9 Pts, 4.3 Reb, 1.2 Ast
Mady Sissoko6-95.1 Pts, 6.1 Reb, 0.5 Ast
Pierre Brooks6-63.6 Pts, 1.7 Reb, 0.4 Ast
Jaxon Kohler6-93.0 Pts, 2.9 Reb, 0.3 Ast
Top 250PERADJeff
28A.J. HoggardMichigan State18.74.4
46Tyson WalkerMichigan State17.74.2
114Jaden AkinsMichigan State14.93.5
126Malik HallMichigan State14.33.3

Class of 2023

1Xavier Booker6?11?Michigan State
28Jeremy Fears6?1?Michigan State
35Coen Carr6?5?Michigan State
73Gehrig Normand6?5?Michigan State

Maryland (22-13, #31 NET)

Hakim Hart is in the portal, but 3 of their 4 best players could return if Jahmir Young uses his covid 5th year. Julian Reese is ready for more. It’s a strong core with a potiental All American in Young.

Jahmir YoungSr6-1
Julian ReeseJr6-9
Donta ScottSr6-8
DeShawn Harris-SmithFr6-4
Jordan GeronimoJr6-6
Jamie KaiserFr6-6
Jahari LongSr6-5
Jahnathan LamotheFr6-4
Chance StephensSo6-3
Noah BatchelorSo6-6
Jahmir Young6-215.8 Pts, 4.6 Reb, 3.1 Ast
Donta Scott6-711.3 Pts, 6.0 Reb, 1.6 Ast
Julian Reese6-911.4 Pts, 7.2 Reb, 1.0 Ast
Ian Martinez6-35.7 Pts, 2.5 Reb, 0.6 Ast
Jahari Long6-52.1 Pts, 0.7 Reb, 1.1 Ast
Top 250PERADJeff
14Julian ReeseMaryland23.54.8
22Jahmir YoungMaryland22.24.5
101Donta ScottMaryland15.73.6


193Jordan Geronimo6’6Indiana17.52.1

Class of 2023

34DeShawn Harris-Smith6?5?Paul VIMaryland
55Jamie Kaiser6?6?IMG AcademyMaryland

Illinois (20-13, #35 NET)

Matthew Mayer is gone, but this is a team that returns a lot of talent. I wonder some about the point guard position, but they seemed to answer that today adding Jeremiah Williams .This is a very talented team.

Terrence Shannon Jr.Sr6-6
Coleman HawkinsSr6-10
Dain DainjaJr6-9
Marcus DomaskSr6-6
Quincy GuerrierSr6-8
Justin HarmonSr6-4
Luke GoodeJr6-7
Ty RodgersSo6-6
Sencire HarrisSo6-4
Amani HansberryFr6-8
Top 250
19Dain DainjaIllinois25.34.6
27Terrance Shannon JrIllinois22.14.4
140Quincy Guerrier *Illinois16.83.2
157Coleman HawkinsIllinois15.43.1


38Quincy Guerrier*6’7Oregon16.83.2
132Marcus Domask6’6S. Illinois20.02.4

Iowa (19-14, #39)

Kris Murray could have returned, but it wouldn’t be advisable at his age and he did in fact stay in the draft. Coming back probably just makes him less valuable in the draft next season. He will be tough to replace, but Iowa should still return a solid group with Patrick McCaffery, Payton Sandfort, and Tony Perkins.

Payton SandfortJr6-7
Patrick McCafferySr6-9
Tony PerkinsSr6-4
Ben KrikkeSr6-9
Pryce SandfortFr6-7
Even BraunsSr6-9
Josh DixSo6-5
Dasonte BowenSo6-2
Ladji DembeleFr6-8
Owen FreemanFr6-10
Top 250
57Payton SandfortIowa20.24.1
63Tony PerkinsIowa17.83.9
106Patrick McCafferyIowa17.43.6


Mike Woodson had a strong season last year replacing Trace Jackson-Davis will be really though. They also lost Jalen Hood-Schifino who was a top 20 pick in the NBA draft but he’s more replaceable. Someone can fill his usage role at similar production. Jackson-Davis is where there hit is. Kel’el Ware is a good start but he’s not a 23 year old battle tested All American. This team likely takes a step back.

Xavier JohnsonSr6-3
Mackenzie MgbakoFr6-8
Kel’el WareSo7-0
Trey GallowayJr6-4
Malik ReneauSo6-9
Payton SparksJr6-9
Kaleb BanksSo6-7
Gabe CuppsFr6-1
Jakai NewtonFr6-3
Anthony LealJr6-5
Top 250
48Kel’el WareIndiana21.84.2
79Xavier JohnsonIndiana16.83.7
263Trey GallowayIndiana122.5

Wisconsin (20-14, #80 NET)

Wisconsin wasn’t very good last season, but they return everyone that matters from a deep NIT run at this point. That postseason experience is usually pretty useful.

Steven CrowlSr7-0
Connor EssegianSo6-4
Chucky HepburnJr6-2
Max KlesmitSr6-3
Tyler WahlSr6-9
AJ StorrSo6-6
Gus YaldenFr6-8
Markus IlverJr6-8
Nolan WinterFr6-10
John BlackwellFr6-3
Top 250
37Steven CrowlWisconsin20.04.3
108Connor EssegianWisconsin16.63.5
128Chucky HepburnWisconsin15.23.3
249Max KlesmitWisconsin122.6


157AJ Storr6?6St. John?s12.2

Class of 2023

88Gus Yalden6?9?Wisconsin
143Nolan Winter6?10?Wisconsin
149John Blackwell6?3?Wisconsin

Northwestern (22-12, #41 NET)

Boo Buie will return but Chas Audige elected to stay in the draft. Blake Preston is an underrated player that was a big part of a top 40 NET Liberty team as well transferring in. We like that addition.

Boo BuieSr6-2
Matthew NicholsonSr7-0
Brooks BarnhizerJr6-6
Ty BerrySr6-3
Ryan LangborgSr6-4
Blake PrestonSr6-9
Nick MartinelliSo6-7
Jordan ClaytonFr6-2
Luke HungerSo6-10
Justin MullinsSo6-6
Top 250
49Boo BuieNorthwestern19.74.1
129Brooks BarnhizerNorthwestern16.63.3
247Ty BerryNorthwestern12.92.6


164Blake Preston6’9Liberty23.12.3
287Ryan Langborg6’4Princeton14.61.7
411Justin Mullins6’6Denver14.40.9

Rutgers (19-15, #40)

Clifford Omoruyi will return. Cam Spencer and Paul Mulcahy unfortunately will not return and have transfered. Aundre Hyatt will use a 5th covid year an help stop the bleeding some. With Omoruyi there is a chance to stay relevant but the other losses hurt.

Clifford OmoruyiSr6-11
Aundre HyattSr6-6
Noah FernandesSr5-11
Mawot MagSr6-7
Derek SimpsonSo6-3
Gavin GriffithsFr6-7
Antwone WoolfolkSo6-9
Austin WilliamsSr6-4
Jamichael DavisFr6-2
Oskar PalmquistSr6-8
Clifford Omoruyi6-1113.2 Pts, 9.6 Reb, 0.9 Ast
Aundre Hyatt6-68.8 Pts, 3.9 Reb, 0.8 Ast
Derek Simpson6-37.1 Pts, 1.6 Reb, 1.5 Ast
Mawot Mag6-77.8 Pts, 5.3 Reb, 1.1 Ast
Antwone Woolfolk6-92.3 Pts, 1.6 Reb, 0.3 Ast
Top 250PERADJeff
36Clifford OmoruyiRutgers22.34.3


183Noah Fernandes5’11UMass18.72.2

Class of 2023

51Gavin Griffiths6’7Rutgers
134Baye Ndongo6’9Rutgers


Keisei Tominaga is one of the more underatted guards in America. He’s one of the best shooters in the country with a .634% true shooting percentage. Rienk Mast and Brice Williams were great additions in teh portal for Fred Hoiberg. Point guard is the question.

Keisei TominagaSr6-2
Juwan GarySr6-6
Rienk MastSr6-9
Brice WilliamsSr6-7
Josiah AllickSr6-8
C.J. WilcherJr6-5
Jarron ColemanSr6-5
Ahron UlisSr6-3
Jamarques LawrenceSo6-3
Sam HoibergSo6-0
Top 250
35Keisei TomingaNebraska20.44.3
183Rienk MastNebraska24.32.9
207Brice WilliamsNebraska23.92.8

Penn State

New coach, new roster. It has some talent, but how soon they come together will be the question. Bringing Ace Baldwin from VCU to run the same system and set the tone should help in that aspect. It’s going to be a stylistic difference if they play the same way VCU did in the Big Ten. That could work to Penn State’s advantage.

Ace BaldwinSr6-1
Qudus WahabSr6-11
Zach HicksJr6-7
Puff JohnsonSr6-8
RayQuawndis MitchellSr6-5
Kanye ClarySo5-11
Leo O’BoyleSr6-7
Nick Kern Jr.Jr6-6
D’Marco DunnJr6-5
Jameel BrownSo6-4
58Qudus WahabPenn State20.94.1
222Ace Baldwin Jr.Penn State18.02.8
435Puff JohnsonPenn State11.41.8

Ohio State

Holtman seems to be feeling some pressure to get better. The team last year was ok by the metrics, but had a losing record and couldn’t get into the NIT despite a 52 NET ranking. Ohio State doesn’t let you have many losing seasons or NIT’s regardless. I’m not sure this team is better. Jamison Battle will need to be healthy and in his former form for much chance of that.

Zed KeySr6-8
Bruce ThorntonSo6-2
Roddy Gayle Jr.So6-4
Felix OkparaSo6-11
Dale BonnerSr6-2
Jamison BattleSr6-7
Taison ChatmanFr6-4
Devin RoyalFr6-7
Scotty MiddletonFr6-6
Evan MahaffeySo6-6
10Zed KeyOhio State24.75.2
137Bruce ThorntonOhio State15.23.3
237Jamison Battle*Ohio State18.32.7
341Dale BonnerOhio State11.92.3


Michigan has the distinction of losing the best transfer ever most likely. A former All American. This team wasn’t very good to begin with last year (61 NET ranking) and also lost a lottery pick. The talent takes a massive step back.

Dug McDanielSo5-11
Jaelin LlewellynSr6-2
Olivier NkamhouaSr6-9
Terrance Williams IISr6-7
Nimari BurnettJr6-4
Tarris Reed Jr.So6-10
Tray JacksonSr6-10
George Washington IIIFr6-2
Will TschetterSo6-8
Jace HowardSr6-7
76Olivier NkamhouaMichigan19.13.8
279Dug McDanielMichigan12.52.6
396Terrance Williams IIMichigan10.62.1
397Jaelin LlewellynMichigan9.82.0


Dawson Garcia is a big time player, but there really isn’t much else going on here.

Dawson GarciaJr6-11
Pharrel PayneSo6-9
Mike Mitchell Jr.Jr6-2
Braeden CarringtonSo6-4
Joshua Ola-JosephSo6-7
Elijah HawkinsJr5-11
Will RambergSr6-5
Cameron ChristieFr6-5
Kadyn BettsFr6-8
Jack WilsonSr6-11
81Dawson GarciaMinnesota19.33.8
148Pharrel PayneMinnesota18.62.9
356Mike MitchellMinnesota13.52.3

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