Our model, ADJeff ratings, are just a rating of the D1 players and their Adjust Efficiency by strength of schedule.There are other factors we consider in the overall team rankings like coaching, continuity, incoming freshmen, JUCO, team build, fit, etc.
The WCC takes a hit losing BYU to the Big 12. The conference has been strong on the court the last few years with Gonzaga ranking #1 in the nation on average in NET since it’s inception 5 years ago, (it’s not even close) and Saint Mary’s in the Top 20 as an underrated program most wouldn’t expect to rank that high. It’s kind of a two team league at this point and these season expects to be no different. He next battle will be for third place where we really like what Loyola Marymount was able to do in the portal.
Gonzaga (30-6, #6 NET)
Gonzaga has the highest NET ranking in college basketball in the 5 years NET has existed. I don’t know how you bet against them. Drew Timme could have use his covid 5th year and I’m surprised he didn’t being paid a reported 1 million dollars in NIL. They will also have to replace Julian Strawther as well who stayed in the draft. He’s unlikely to get drafted high enough to make that kind of money. I’m less sure about some of the other key players who likely don’t have the same NIL type of deal. Malachi Smith did not return and I thought he was capable of a bigger role. I just believe in Mark Few and Gonzaga enough to not drop them to far outside of the top 10 to much even with some unknowns. He will land some talent in the portal I’m sure as well and has some guys on the bench too keep winning.
Few was able to land some quality transfers in Ike and Nembhard. The defense with Ike in the middle much like Timme, is likely to remain an issue. At least for a team at this elite of a level.
Leading scorer Logan Johnson is gone, but I they do likely return Aidan Mahaney and Mitchell Saxen. Alex Ducas could also return as well if he elects to take his covid 5th year. We learned our lesson by betting against Randy Bennett last year to have a rebuilding season even though it looked like one. He’s one of the best coaches in the game and Saint Mary’s has a top 20 NET ranking the last 5 years playing in a glorified high school gym. It’s amazing what he does there. He’s been to 15 straight NCAA or NIT’s.
