We are in the process of updating these rankings to reflect the roster attrition through the NBA Draft withdrawal. We’ve listed the returners, the Transfer and Class of 2023 rankings in the team sections below as well. We’ve also compiled our first Top 250 player rankings by adjusted efficiency in the team sections below.
Our model, ADJeff ratings, are just a rating of the D1 players and their Adjust Efficiency by strength of schedule.There are other factors we consider in the overall team rankings like coaching, continuity, incoming freshmen, JUCO’s, team build, fit, etc.
Kansas lost their 3 leading scorers and just reloaded in the transfer portal landing Hunter Dickenson who was the 2nd best player in the nation in our model. He’s the best transfer that has ever hit the portal in our rankings. Kansas easily has the most talented team in the nation in our estimation. The continuity will be some questions adding a player like Dickenson, but he seems like a perfect fit what for Kansas likes to do. Bill Self’s health is really the only question mark at this point after not coaching in the tournaments. After the transfer haul, this team is stacked again on talent in a tier I believe with Purdue as the top 2 teams. I think Kansas has the most talent by a lot, but Purdue has continuity and clear pecking order. We’ve seen Purdue do it, but this talent is overwhelming.
Zach Edey‘s draft prospects aren?t considered great by most. We believe he will be a highly successful NBA player, but if he?s not going to be drafted highly so he was always likely to return. Especially with the NIL available now.
It’s gone mostly unnoticed, but Edey’s combine stats were incredible for a player 7-4, 306lbs. He’s has more speed and/or agility from our research than what many notable NBA players measured at the combine. This list includes Derrick Rose, Carmelo Anthony, Kevin Durant, Khris Middleton, and Kawhi Leonard. Believe it or not he ran some of those drills faster, and even had a higher vertical than Durant and Kawhi as well. He’s also measured the 2nd longest in length in combine history. What the NBA community is missing about him we have no clue combined with most importantly the All Time level of production on the court.
Foster Loyer and Braden Smith were freshmen and played at a high level last season, especially considering the fact college basketball is older than ever in the covid super senior era. We’ve seen players that have been in school since 2016 and are 26 years old in the portal. They return with Edey to make up the core, but the key here is totally Edey. He’s a one man wrecking ball and the entire team essentially. With his return, you have got to have Purdue near the top. He had one of the the greatest handful of seasons in NCAA history and will likely repeat with another.
It would have been nice if they added some quickness around him, as a team like FDU who exposed some problems. That upset happened, but it’s only one game. This is still the Big Ten regular season and the tournament champion almost completely intact. Good enough should be good enough, with Edey the number one player individually and by a lot they should have no trouble competing for a top 5 finish. Kansas is the most talented team in the nation and it might not be enough to rank them over Kansas, but Purdue has the best player and continuity returning from a team we know was good and will likely improve.
I wouldnt’ have had the Blue Jay’s this high just by the eye test, but the model is off the charts for them. Ryan Kalkbrenner is one of the best players in the nation and I believe they got better with Steven Ashworth . By the numbers this is an improvement over Ryan Nembhard in our model. Ashworth was the best nonbig in the country available in the portal. Arthur Kaluma elected to transfer as well, and some say that might be addition by subtraction. If he knew his role he would be great on this team as a wing stopper, but it has plenty of highly efficient scorers and didn’t need him for a usage role.
Tennessee is a deep team with a lot of good players and not overly dependent on one or two. It was still would be better if Santiago Vescovi came back for year five. Zakai Zeigler returned but Julian Phillips stayed in the draft. Olivier Nkamhoua is solid and also hit the portal and Uros Plavsic was asked to leave it seems. Again it’s one of the deeper teams. If you are going to play a lot of players you have to expect some to be unhappy with the depressed minutes and role, so that’s part of it as is next man up. They have backfilled with a strong transfer class as well.
Marcus Sasser and Jarace Walker remained in the NBA draft. I think you have to trust the system Sampson has and it almost feels plug-and-play at this point. Houston was still a top level team two years ago when they lost Sasser to injury. J’Wan Roberts, and Jamal Shead return, and Sampson has added big time talent through the portal. They also have a nice incoming high school class as well. They shouldn?t miss a beat in the Big 12. Tramon Mark hit the portal but that’s not a huge loss either in our opinion. The hair on fire rebounding and defense here will be back with Roberts and the players they target to fit it. They picked up LJ Cryer and Damian Dunn and are having one of the best portal seasons.
Shaka Smart could return all of its main contributors. Kameron Jones didn’t test the NBA Draft which was a bit of a surprise after an unexpectedly strong season. He seemed like the most likely prospect. Olivier-Maxence Prosper did however enter the draft and will not return. Everyone else will however and are really young meaning there should be some improvement on a typical team. That said I think they mostly played some over their head last season as a preseason 9th projection in the Big East already. I wouldn’t expect another huge leap rather than maintenance in this case. It wouldn’t shock me if they actually slumped or took some step back even before the loss of Olivier-Maxence Prosper. Water already seemed to find its level in the NCAA tournament as is typically the case with teams that were unexpectedly high seeds without the preseason accolades as history has shown. However, Prosper isn’t the greatest loss in our opinion as he was 4th on the team statistically. That is the good news. Overall there was more players than we expected stay in the draft this year so this feels like you have to have them here with what they return.
UConn could have returned everyone that matters from a dominant NCAA Championship run. Unfortunately for them Jordan Hawkins , Andre Jackson, and Adama Sanogo have entered the NBA draft and capitalized while their stock is high. Considering where Sanogo is mocked I would have thought it would have made some sense for him to return on a similar if not more lucrative NIL deal.
Even with Sanogo not returning Donovan Clingan behind him should be the next big thing with a 35 PER in his limited role last year. The key will be staying out of foul trouble. They also have 5-Star Stephon Castle coming in. Tristen Newton will use his extra 5th years covid season. Newton and Alex Karaban are capable of more in our opinion. This was a stacked team that has been dominating on the way to the championship winning by 20 points on average. They only trailed for 40 seconds in the 2nd half during the entire NCAA tournament.
This however will be a much different team now, but one that still has some talent and some core experience. UConn likely waited on the players to return before going into the portal and seemed to have been a little burned, but recovered nicely with late addition Cam Spencer .
Duke will have Jeremy Roach and Tyrese Proctor back. Kyle Filipowski is surprisingly heading back. They have the 2nd best high school class coming in as well. I am skeptical of depending on freshmen so heavily again in the era of covid super seniors. That played out more or less as expected last season as it’s a little bit of a disappointing season by Duke standards.
Jon Scheyer isn?t Coach K nor should anyone expect him to be at this point. They will be super talented again, but there still is a learning curve happening with younger players. He’s probably going to be a little better as a coach but getting young guys no matter how talented up to speed might still be a hard ask when college basketball continues to be so old with covid extra years.
I would have expected a similar type 10-15 season to last unless they get some major transfers instead of the absolute 1-5 one others may. That’s what the model suggest as well. I do expect Sean Stewart at 6-8, 230 to be more ready than most as freshman from day one. From a pure talent and potential aspect, I get it, I still think the coaching and experience might keep them down some.
Tom Izzo I believe has the highest upside freshman coming in this season in Xavier Booker. We have him mocked as the 3rd pick in the 2024 draft, much higher than others. It’s possible that he’s to skinny to make the kind of impact you would expect a recruit ranking this high to make. I also think Izzo is a great coach that will get what he can out of him and this team more than I trust other coaches. He has Jarren Jackson Jr potential especially if he can gain some weight at a college training table. Booker had a disappointing high school senior year by his standards but has a 7-5 wingspan and shot 36% from three as a Junior, 74% FT’s. There are tools to work with.
The Spartans can return A.J. Hoggard and Jaden Akins as well to give them some experience. Tyson Walker could also use his covid 5th season. Joey Hauser is the big loss, and his floor spacing and gravity from a big man spot could compromise the space this season more than most anticipate. The talent and continuitiy is here though and Izzo is a great coach to figure it out.
Gonzaga has the highest NET ranking in college basketball in the 5 years NET has existed. I don’t know how you bet against them. Drew Timme could have use his covid 5th year and I’m surprised he didn’t being paid a reported 1 million dollars in NIL. They will also have to replace Julian Strawther as well who stayed in the draft. He’s unlikely to get drafted high enough to make that kind of money. I’m less sure about some of the other key players who likely don’t have the same NIL type of deal. Malachi Smith did not return and I thought he was capable of a bigger role. I just believe in Mark Few and Gonzaga enough to not drop them to far outside of the top 10 to much even with some unknowns. He will land some talent in the portal I’m sure as well and has some guys on the bench too keep winning.
Few was able to land some quality transfers in Ike and Nembhard. The defense with Ike in the middle much like Timme, is likely to remain an issue. At least for a team at this elite of a level.
Losing to a 15th-seed Princeton in the tournament isn’t any more ideal than Purdue losing, but I don’t put a lot into that. Upsets happen and this was a top 10 team by most metrics. Princeton was also a strong 15 seed and proved that making the Sweet 16. Two of their top returners averaging double-digit points can return for coach Tommy Lloyd. Azuolas Tubelis is a tough loss, but Oumar Ballo should be one of the best players in the country next year and the post is where the value of this team is. They also added Keshad Johnson from San Deigo State to help mitigate the loss some. Losing Kerr Kriisa in the portal is a surprise, but I think they will be able to replace him fairly easily. His impact was a little overstated by most in our opinion. Pelle Larsson should be able to take over some of the ball handling duties and adding Jaden Bradley gives them a still strong potential starting 5. Caleb Love was a late pick up after he couldn’t get into Michigan. We think they still needed to bring in a little more proven ball handling. If Tommy Lloyd can get Love’s shooting under control and playing a role on this team behind the big men, he could be helpful. If he’s coming here to play the role he did at UNC with that level of usage this could be a negative.
Could they keep their players and coach after the Final Four run, so far they have. I had been skeptical of Dusty May returning. He’s also complained schools were recruiting his players even as they are trying to win a championship. We were skeptical this team would be back, but it’s a pleasant surprise as a college basketball fan to see this team likely returning intact now. They remained intact better than almost anyone through the portal and NBA draft season.
We’ve moved them up to 16th from the wait-and-see status. The question now is this lightning in the bottle is something they can sustain or even improve on last year, or will they take a step back. The continuity will help certainly and the NCAA experience but if this team had lost in the first round to Memphis in a game they barely won how would we feel?
They were barely over .500 and had a #132 net the previous year. The jump they made from 132 NET to 13th would suggest maybe a rebound back or some snapback may happen as well. They also will be moving to the American Conference which overall should be a tougher test. It will be interesting but certainly deserve to be ranked in the top 20 to start the season. Probably the top 10 but just considering where they were 2 years ago we have a little hesitancy going that far.
Leading scorer Logan Johnson is gone, but I they do likely return Aidan Mahaney and Mitchell Saxen. Alex Ducas could also return as well if he elects to take his covid 5th year. We learned our lesson by betting against Randy Bennett last year to have a rebuilding season even though it looked like one. He’s one of the best coaches in the game and Saint Mary’s has a top 20 NET ranking the last 5 years playing in a glorified high school gym. It’s amazing what he does there. He’s been to 15 straight NCAA or NIT’s.
Miami will only have one notable player that is a senior and that has used all five seasons in Jordan Miller. Nijel Pack and Norchad Omier will return and we know from Pack’s 2-year 800k NIL deal being reported they have deep-pocketed supporters. The bigger question is Jim Larranaga. He’s 73 years old, but with this team, I think he?s probably going to come back if they will. The NET was a little low this past season, but that was more the SOS and the slow start by Nijel Pack. The last 23 games he shot 43% from three and averaged 15ppg. They are playing more like the team we expected to close the season. They did take a hit on depth transferring out losing Walker but they scored big landing FSU transfer Matthew Cleveland as the big wing they are missing.
The Aggie play such a deep rotation they will always have an experienced player. The problem is playing so many means they have to replace more. With Wade Taylor, Henry Coleman, and Julius Marble likely to return most of the core should be intact.
The Razorbacks lost Ricky Council and Devonte Davis. We know Eric Musselman will hit the portal hard. He’s already connected with all 1600 transfers it seems. It?s just a given he lands some good ones eventually and he did. Top 12 five star Baye Fall will help as well. One thing is for sure Musselman stacks the rosters. I’m not sure how he makes all the promises he does or players sign on seeing all the competition but they do. Once again it’s one of the best recruiting classes in the country for combined freshman and transfers.
LJ Cryer has hit the portal and Adam Flagler will remain in the NBA Draft, but it’s likely that Jalen Bridges will return and incoming freshmen Miro Little and JaKobe Walter should help Baylor reload some. I would expect the Baylor to hit the portal hard as well like always. They have since added RayJ Dennis and Jayden Nunn as Cryers Flagler replacements.
Johni Broome and Jaylin Williams return and the additions of Denver Jones and our #1 JUCO player Chad Baker-Mazera should give them an opposing defense. Chad Baker-Mazera had a solid season with San Deigo State prior to JUCO’s. He had the 2nd highest defensive rating on the the top defensive team that season and led his JUCO team to the National Championship game. The biggest question is at point guard.
Matthew Mayer is gone, but this is a team that returns a lot of talent. I wonder some about the point guard position, but they seemed to answer that today adding Jeremiah Williams .This is a very talented team, we may be moving up.
UNC had the 65th-highest three-point shooting percentage in 2021-22. Last year it dropped to 329th. Caleb Love has hit the portal and that’s not the worst thing to me considering he had a true shooting percentage under .500%. He’s one of the only players in the nation that has ever shot 7+ three’s a game while shooting under .300%. He was the majority of the reason for the terrible outside shooting. They have already improved that shooting by adding Paxon Wojick.
I fully expect the NBA 2nd all-time leading three-point percentage player Hubert Davis to target multiple other 3 point shooters with the spots he is opening in the portal. Building a team like that around Armando Bacot who is already confirmed back supposedly using his covid 5th year. I think if you put shooters around him and RJ Davis they are back in the national conversation. Nexus top 10 recruit, Simeon Wilcher has decommitted.
Kris Murray could have returned, but it wouldn?t be advisable at his age and he did in fact stay in the draft. He should get drafted in the 1st round and coming back probably just makes him less valuable in the draft next season. He will be tough to replace, but Iowa should still return a solid group with Patrick McCaffery, Payton Sandfort, and Tony Perkins.
Kel’el Ware has hit the portal because N’Faly Dante is likely returning. Both played great last season but Dante was the key. Keeshawn Barthelemy likely returns as well. They have a great class coming in with Mookie Cook and Kwame Evans.
